The Senators' 2025 playoff chances will be much brighter if Josh Norris can fully overcome his shoulder injuries. But that's a big "if."

Former 35-goal scorer Josh Norris is in all too familiar territory right now. 

For a second straight summer, he's recovering from wintertime shoulder surgery, leaving Ottawa Senators fans to wonder if this is the year he can get healthy and stay healthy. To that end, there are so many questions:

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It's all questions and no answers. 

For now, the Senators are doing the only thing they can—waiting it out and hoping for the best. Everyone in Ottawa is pulling for him, but if you're honest, you probably wouldn't bet a lot of money on the Norris Exacta of staying healthy and returning to the elite form.

This is the third time Norris has had surgery on that shoulder, and he's injured it more times than that, sometimes opting for rehab over the knife. 

Last year, Norris arrived late but came out of the chute well, with two goals in his first game and 20 points in his first 26 games. But he went cold with 6 points in his next 20. He closed with 30 points in 50 games, which would put him on pace (over 82 games) for a 49-point season. 

By contrast, Shane Pinto played 41 games, and his pace was 54 points. Pinto is also a better two-way player and a far more likely candidate to stay healthy. 

Things change fast in the NHL. When all his injuries began, Norris was Ottawa's number-one centre. Now, even if all goes well, he's tracking to be the number three centre or a candidate to move to the wing.

Interestingly, three of Norris's final five games in 2023-24 represented season lows in ice time: 

13:19 in a 4-2 win over Tampa Bay

13:06 in a 3-2 overtime loss to Florida

12:59 in a 6-3 loss to Washington, the night before the injury

There are several potential explanations, but diminishing ice time isn't generally the hallmark of a player who's all the way back from repeated shoulder issues. 

After surgery in late January 2023, Norris still wasn't healthy enough to participate in training camp almost eight months later. This latest surgery on the same shoulder was on February 29th, 2024. So, if Norris wasn't ready for camp last year with the benefit of an extra month of recovery, it'll be a challenge to be on time this year. 

But who knows? Perhaps the shoulder was far less damaged this time around? Maybe he'll be free of the rehab setbacks he had last year?

GM Steve Staios sounded optimistic in his meeting with the media last month.

"We're really pleased, speaking to the medical and the strength and conditioning staff, that he's making great progress," Staios said. "We feel good about how he's doing and the timeline that he's on.

"We're gonna take the best approach for Josh to be prepared to play the entire season."

The 25-year-old's psyche is just as much a concern. It's reached a stage where it's only human nature for Norris to try and favour or protect the shoulder, and it's hard to be productive when you're worried about taking contact. The NHL's best players have to pay a physical price to be great every night, even if they aren't physical players.

The Senators' injury luck has been terrible in recent seasons. Maybe they're due to catch a break with their fifth highest-paid player and get him back at his best – even if it appears right now to be against the odds.