Senators GM Steve Staios rebalanced his roster this season to bring down the club's goals against totals. Here's why 250 is a great number to shoot for.
The Ottawa Senators opening night lineup for the 2024/2025 season will be vastly different than last year. Many feel that, apart from the goaltending position, the overall talent level is not significantly higher. But there is better balance and other intangibles present.
Some may wonder if GM Steve Staios had an overarching vision when constructing this year’s roster. Could it be as simple as not allowing opposing teams to score more than 250 goals over an 82 game season?
If not, it should it be.
In the four seasons since the NHL returned to the traditional 16-team format (after the COVID-inspired 24-team bubble tournament), 51 of the 64 teams (80%) that have made the playoffs allowed 249 goals or less over 82 games.
53 of the 63 teams (84%) that missed the playoffs allowed 250 goals or more. The few teams that managed to outscore their defensive deficiencies during the regular season and make the playoffs have a very high percentage of first round exits... Yes, Toronto we're talking about you.
While there is some implied logic that teams that allow less goals will win more games and finish higher in the standings, the statistical significance of the number 250 is specifically noticeable.
The last time the Ottawa Senators allowed less than 250 goals (prorated for the COVID seasons) was 2016/2017. Ottawa actually scored 2 less goals than they allowed that year but the end result was 98 points, 2nd place in their division, and a memorable playoff run.
Staios is well aware of the importance of attention to detail on the defensive side of the puck. He played most of his career as a shutdown defenseman and to do that for 16 seasons and over 1000 games is doing a lot of little things the right way.
It is also no coincidence that Staios wanted someone like Jacques Martin to have a front row seat to evaluate the defensive acumen of the players on last year’s roster. Although he was never going to be a long-term solution as head coach, he remains a part of the Senators' management team and his opinions regarding proposed deletions and additions to the roster would be well-respected in the room.
Those that prefer simple math to advanced statistics have long been told to make note of your favourite team’s place in the NHL standings relative to playoff positioning on American Thanksgiving. That's often an easy way to predict your team’s chances of ultimately playing post-season hockey.
But on or around the same date, you may also want to prorate your team’s goals against over an 82 game schedule. If it's 249 or less, you’re trending well.