The Senators Have Bought Into Defence. Now Where's The Offence?

The Senators have bought into a new level of commitment to team defence this season. Head coach Travis Green deserves credit for that and it's led to the club's best start in ten years.

But the early numbers raise an interesting question. Is that fierce new commitment part of why the offense is scuffling? 

Through nine games, the Senators stand 26th with 2.44 goals per game. According to HockeyReference.com, the Sens have generated 48 high danger scoring chances at 5-on-5. Compared to their opponents in games this season, they're running at 39 percent of the high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five.

That ranks them 27th in the league in the latter two categories.

But the offence seems to have gotten even worse in the past week with just four regulation goals in the past three games, and only three at five-on-five.

There are several ways a heavy "defence-first" mindset can affect offensive production.

To varying degrees, skill players thrive on instinct, attack, and sometimes risk to generate scoring chances. When defensive responsibility becomes the heavy priority or the thing you're rewarded for, then hanging back and making the safe play may become the default setting.

If defencemen are less inclined to pinch, that can reduce offensive-zone pressure. Players can start thinking too much instead of reacting and that hesitation can make a difference.

And when forwards are backchecking hard, blocking shots and battling along the boards, they can have less energy for attacking, especially late in shifts.

None of that necessarily means Green's tight system is responsible for the offensive struggles. No team succeeds without doing the hard defensive work. But it's worth considering whether some of his guys are still trying to find the right balance.

Dylan Cozens might be a prime example.

Cozens has just two points in his first nine games. He received Selke Trophy votes last season and clearly takes pride in being a player who plays the game the right way. That's a virtue to be celebrated, but the Sens also need him to get every one of the 28 goals and 59 points he had last season.

Maybe this is just an adjustment period for some players. Or maybe their offense just needs some help.

There's no getting around the fact that the Senators lost some offence with the Brady Tkachuk trade.

The Sens tried to backfill by acquiring William Eklund, who's already missed five games and is expected to miss another 10 weeks with an ankle injury.

Andre Burakovsky was another part of that backfill strategy, but he hasn't generated anything so far. In five games, he has zero points and just two shots on goal. He also played a season-low 9:14 on Saturday night.

Injuries are just as big a factor in the roster shortcomings theory.

The Sens have been without two of their top three defencemen to start the year, which makes a huge difference in getting out of their own zone, pushing the offence up ice and maintaining possession with smart plays at the opposing blue line.

Without Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub, who combined for 84 points last season, the Senators have been missing two important pieces of their transition game.

Their absence also put heavy pressure on Thomas Chabot, who was on pace for the heaviest workload of his career. As the new captain, Chabot was off to an excellent start to the season, but on Saturday, he made a couple of costly mistakes on the Flyers' tying goal before leaving with an injury of his own.

The current offensive skill deficit may be highlighted by their 28th place standing on the power play (12.8 percent). Not having Sanderson or Tkachuk has been massive.

Green seems to see the clouds forming as well, making not one, but two major line shuffles in the past two games. 

Much of the forward shuffling has been about finding a winger for Tim Stützle and Drake Batherson. Stephen Halliday was the latest to get a chance in the Islanders game. But during Saturday's loss, Claude Giroux moved onto the top line while Halliday shifted down to centre Cozens and Burakovsky.

It's still early, and certainly no one in Ottawa is complaining about a 6-3-0 start. The Senators haven't started a season this well since 2016-17, when they came within one goal of reaching the Stanley Cup Final.

But beneath that record, there are concerns bubbling up like rust under paint.

The Senators have shown they can win games with this new level of defensive commitment, and offensively, some players may still adjusting to that.

But when you combine that with a big trade and a big list of injuries, it's become a perfect storm that's going to require nearly perfect defense (and great goaltending) to keep winning at this pace.

By Steve Warne
The Hockey News Ottawa