Chabot has already missed 18 games so far and, while he may have his critics, his absence has been one of the factors in the Senators' struggles this season.
As the Ottawa Senators’ season continues to fall short of expectations with a fifth consecutive defeat, the analysis will continue as to where things came off the rails.
Some will point to inconsistencies in goal. There is no doubt that two goaltenders with sub .900 save percentages have played a part. Others will say that the team structure on defence was so haphazard that no goalie could thrive in that kind of environment.
Now that DJ Smith is out and Jacques Martin is in as interim head coach, it is easy to point to coaching as the primary cause of the underwhelming start. Everyone will be looking for that "new coach bump.”
Looking at the impacts that coaching changes have had on previously underperforming teams like Edmonton, Minnesota and even Vancouver from last season, it is reasonable to expect an uptick over time.
The Senators have also been no strangers to injuries again this season and missing Shane Pinto for 41 games hasn’t helped.
But one player’s absence doesn’t seem to get as much airtime. Thomas Chabot is currently serving his second stint on Long-Term IR. While the associated cap flexibility has allowed the Senators to defer making roster moves and allowed them to carry additional bodies, the impact of Chabot not being here goes far beyond his cap hit.
Chabot has played only nine of the first 27 games for the Senators and while the team record is only 4-5 with him in the lineup, the metric he has traditionally had the greatest impact on was the power play.
The Senators power play is at 18.35%. Last season, it finished at 23.53%. It’s not hard to imagine what missing player might be affecting that equation.
Prior to his injuries, Chabot drew some criticism for a perceived slow start, having yet to register a goal. Chabot took on the task of playing on the right side to accommodate Jacob Chychrun, a fellow left shot, who is having a fine season thus far.
The more Jake Sanderson flourished in the absence of Chabot, the more theories began to circulate about Chabot becoming irrelevant or trade bait.
While Sanderson has emerged as the alpha on Ottawa's blue line, playing in all situations, Chabot’s ability to chew up minutes and produce in high leverage situations have shown how relevant he is to Sanderson’s success and the success of the team as whole.
Senators’ fans are finding out that you don’t always know what you’ve got until it’s gone.
With Chabot out for a minimum of four weeks and his last game having been against the Seattle Kraken on December 2nd, the minimum 10 games and 24 days absence would make him eligible to return on December 27th against Toronto. That said, it sounds like the Senators will be lucky to see him before 2024. Assuming he returns on January 2nd in Vancouver, he will have missed 23 of the first 32 games.
Truthfully, the Senators’ underwhelming start is a combination of coaching, underperformance, and injuries/suspensions. This isn’t all on Chabot’s absence, but it's part of it. Those who would downplay the impact would have a hard time backing that up.
When he does return, you can bet that Jacques Martin will find a way to leverage Chabot heavily and that the team will be the better for it.