We identify the three developments that need to happen fast to save the current Ottawa Senator rebuild.
Fans and media have two schools of thought about the state of the Ottawa Senators' rebuild.
Some believe the first was a failure and needs to be restarted from scratch. Others feel most of the pieces are in place and, with some roster tweaks, the team can be competitive sooner rather than later.
Which is it?
The answer depends greatly on the timeline you are using and how you define being competitive. For argument's sake, let's say that being competitive for the playoffs will take two seasons, and competitive for the Cup will take four seasons.
Using the Seven Player Profile as a litmus test, let's see if the current core can make the grade based on that timeline.
1) All-Star Center #1 – Tim Stutzle
2) All-Star Center #2 – Shane Pinto/Josh Norris
3) Elite Power Forward – Brady Tkachuk
4) Specialist/Agitator/Versatile 2-Way Forward – Ridly Greig/Shane Pinto/Claude Giroux
5) All-Star Offensive Defenseman – Thomas Chabot
6) All-Star Shutdown Defenseman – Jake Sanderson/Artem Zub
7) All-Star Number One Goaltender – Korpisalo/Sogaard/Merilainen
Besides Claude Giroux and perhaps Artem Zub, no one else has reached their full potential yet.
This isn't the best profile in the league. There's overlap in some areas and a glaring hole in the crease. A lot of the rebuild hinges on three key elements:
a) Travis Green delivering the goods
b) Health and recovery of Josh Norris
c) Emergence of a true #1 goalie
These aren't the only things that need to happen. However, if those three things don't all happen soon, it's safe to say that the initial rebuild will fail.
Having the right coach is as critical to a rebuild as any player on the roster, and the Senators lost five years at that position. The right coach would undoubtedly have the team further ahead than where it sits today. If Green can create the structure and accountability that allows for the inevitable injuries without letting them derail the season, there is hope for the current rebuild. If Staios missed on Green, this rebuild will go in the blender.
Josh Norris was to be a vital part of the rebuild with the hope he'd be either the #1 or #2 center and part of the seven-player profile. Going under the knife again doesn't give any cause for optimism despite Staios saying Norris will be ready for next season. If Norris can regain his 35-goal form, the rebuild has a chance, as the Senators will suddenly have an embarrassment of riches down the middle. If he becomes an LTIR casualty, there is no 35-goal man in the pipeline to replace him.
The emergence of Shane Pinto in the second half of last season helped provide some hope. He will likely need more offensively to fill a top-six role, but in time, he could be the best two-way forward in the Eastern Conference.
At the goaltending position, more will be known by the end of June when the NHL buyout window closes. Many in the rebuild "part two" camp believe that Joonas Korpisalo should be bought out and that a move to bring in a proven goaltender makes sense. Staios says he believes the goaltending in Ottawa is good when the team plays the right way. Don't look for a buyout this offseason.
That said, Korpisalo must improve next season or another year of the rebuild will be lost. Korpisalo played 55 games last season, which was a career-high. He needs to show that he can be the goalie of 2022-23. If he can't, either Mads Sogaard or Levi Merilainen needs to take giant steps forward. Both are coming off strong seasons but are likely destined to lead the charge in Belleville for another year.
The talk of rebuilding the rebuild has even prompted trade talk of Brady Tkachuk. Staios quickly put an end to that, which suggests that he sees hope in the current framework if he can address roster holes during the offseason. If he felt that the current rebuild couldn't be salvaged and couldn't deliver a Cup-competitive team by the end of Tkachuk's current deal, the Senators captain might be in play.
That is likely the timeline that Staios is using. His most important asset becomes a UFA in four seasons. If Tkachuk sees a path to the Cup, he'll likely extend and try to get it done in Ottawa. If not, he could take the path his brother did.
Staios doesn't want to be the GM who deals Brady Tkachuk any more than he wants to be the GM who tells fans that the rebuild isn't over, despite what his predecessor once believed.
The current rebuild still has life if Green, Norris and Korpisalo can succeed.