The Senators boosted their playoff hopes by acquiring Foegele, but did the Senators give up too much for a forward who's having a down year with only one more year of club control?
Heading into Friday’s trade deadline, the Senators have played themselves into the playoff conversation by going 6-2-2 in their last 10 games.
Ottawa has compiled 67 points through 60 games played and presently sits six points back of the Boston Bruins and the Eastern Conference’s second wild card seed. They have put themselves within striking distance, but the Senators still have work to do to leapfrog some of their peers.
The precarious nature of their playoff odds has generated significant intrigue about what general manager Steve Staios could do as his organization approached the deadline. In theory, his team should be in a better position because of how well they have defended at five-on-five this season. The Senators currently reside in the top five in the percentage of shots allowed (52.91 CF%, 5th), shots on goal allowed (53.86 SF%, 3rd), and expected goals (54.21 xGF%, 4th) per Natural Stat Trick.
On Thursday afternoon, we got our answer.
The Senators dealt a 2026 second-round pick and a conditional swap of 2026 third-round picks with the Los Angeles Kings for left winger Warren Foegele.
Listed at 6’2 and 205 lb, the 29-year-old Foegele is currently in the second year of his three-year contract, which carries an average annual value (AAV) of $3.5 million. In 47 games with the Kings this season, Foegele has compiled seven goals and two assists - a massive reduction in production from the winger when he recorded back-to-back 20-plus goal and 40-plus point seasons with the Oilers and Kings, respectively.
2023-24 with Edmonton: 82 games, 20 goals, 41 points
2024-25 with Los Angeles: 82 games, 24 goals, 46 points
It is also worth noting that Foegele is a highly effective penalty killer.
This season obviously represents a marked step back from his previous two seasons, but Foegele is still on the right side of 30 and has good years left. It is worth mentioning that Foegele’s most common linemates this season were Phillip Danault and Trevor Moore. The trio was used primarily as a shutdown line, but after they all had strong 2024-25 seasons, they fell off a cliff offensively.
Danault contributed zero goals and five assists in 30 games before being dealt to Montreal. Moore’s production has also fallen precipitously after recording 57 points and 40 points, respectively, over the last two seasons.
Some Senators will inevitably balk at the idea of trading a valued high pick for a depth forward having a down offensive year, especially in a year when the Senators may not make the postseason.
Having lost their 2026 first-round selection as punishment for former general manager Pierre Dorion’s mishandling of the Evgenii Dadonov no-trade list, the Senators do not presently own a pick in either of the first two rounds of this year’s NHL draft. In consideration of the fact that the Senators’ pipeline of prospects isn’t exactly brimming with blue-chip prospects, the lack of draft capital at the top of the draft is certainly a concern.
Foegele represented an ideal buy-low target, but the Senators paid a relatively high price for a player having a down year who offers them only one more year of team control.
At the same time, the addition of Foegele could potentially afford the Senators the flexibility to move depth forwards out to recoup some of the draft capital that they have lost. Similarly, the Senators are currently playing Nick Cousins in a third-line capacity when he is probably best suited for a fourth-line role. In light of expiring contracts for players like Cousins, Lars Eller and David Perron, the opportunity to add Foegele to the mix as depth carries weight, too.
Given the costs of what other checking line forwards were going for at the deadline, the price does feel somewhat mitigated, but the teams taking those swings are comfortably in the playoff mix.
Understandably, if the Senators make the playoffs, no one will be worrying too much about the price that was paid. Inevitably, however, everyone’s eyes will be on what the Senators do next.
Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News