Ottawa's defense tightens under Travis Green, achieving historically strong five-on-five play, even as offensive struggles persist.
For years, the Ottawa Senators' style was characterized by high-event hockey.
Whether it was the slow degradation in the quality of the blue line following the Senators' 2007 Cup Final appearance, the introduction of Erik Karlsson and his brilliance as one of the best offensive defencemen of the modern generation, or the organization's lengthy eight-year rebuild, strong team defence was never a sustainable part of the Senators' play.
Until the arrival of Travis Green.
Under Green, the Senators have made significant inroads in their five-on-five play. Through the Senators' first 25 games, their ability to suppress the opposition's shots and chances has been noteworthy.
According to Evolving-Hockey's data, the Senators rank in the top five in several defensive metrics:
- 51.39 shot events allowed per 60 (CA/60), 3rd
- 23.81 shots on goal allowed per 60 (SA/60), 4th
- 2.21 expected goals allowed per 60 (xGA/60, 1st
If not for the team's save percentage, which has notably been improving in recent weeks, the Senators' goals-against rate (2.61 GA/60, 20th) would be much higher.
Looking at the Senators' historical data, this is arguably the most cohesive defence they have played in the era of analytics, when the NHL tracked in-game events, and third-party websites began scraping it, producing publicly available metrics in 2007.
No Senators team in this era has allowed a lower shots on goal rate than the 2025-26 Senators. The 53.1 expected goals percentage is presently the best mark of this era.
HockeyViz's data visuals help confirm how well the Senators are defending.
It may not feel like it after games like the one in Dallas or when significant defensive lapses occur, and the puck finds the back of the net. There is no questioning, however, that the Senators have made significant defensive inroads by emphasizing a commitment to playing behind the puck.
The buy-in with the players has been obvious.
Unfortunately, the Senators have also become a low-event team in their own right. Using the same Evolving-Hockey dataset referenced earlier, the Senators rank in the bottom third of the league in several offensive categories.
- 55.29 shot events per 60 (CF/60), 21st
- 24.93 shots on goal per 60 (SF/60), 23rd
- 2.51 expected goals per 60 (xGF/60, 27th
Fortunately, the Senators have generated more than they have allowed, but their offence is also buoyed by the league's seventh-highest 10.69 on-ice shooting percentage. Without it, their goals rate would be much lower.
If there is a silver lining, it lies in the fact that the Senators have been without Brady Tkachuk for 80 percent of their games. Since the beginning of the 2018-19 campaign, Brady's freshman season in the NHL, only four players -- Nathan MacKinnon, David Pastrnak, Auston Matthews and Alex Ovechkin -- have recorded more shots on goal than the Senators' captain.
Tkachuk is a volume shooter, and his reintegration into the lineup following thumb surgery will make the Senators a more dangerous and deeper team. The depth and talent they now have across four lines should serve them well.
At the same time, Thomas Chabot's absence cannot be understated.
The puck-moving defenceman has missed the last four games after reaggravating an upper-body injury during the Senators' November 22nd tilt against the Sharks. The initial injury forced him to miss three games over nine days in November, so he's approaching a similar window of time now.
The Senators could certainly use him on the blue line.
Tyler Kleven has been elevated to Chabot's spot with Jordan Spence and in the Senators' last four games, the duo has not played particularly well. When they have been on the ice, the Senators have generated 50.00 percent of the shots (CF%), 48.68 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 33.33 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 46.19 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). They are also allowing higher rates of shots, chances and goals than the other pairings per Natural Stat Trick.
Wrapping up their seven-game road trip on Tuesday in Montreal will be huge. The Senators can then return to Ottawa, where they have a favourable home schedule, which will also help. After the Canadiens game, the Senators will play seven of their next 12 games at home and, knock on wood, the quality of competition should afford them plenty of opportunities to pick up points.
It is a critical juncture of the season, and building up a points cushion to create some separation and a larger margin for error is pivotal.
By Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News - Ottawa
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