The Long Haul: Which Long-Term Ottawa Senators' Contracts Will Age Best?

When the Pittsburgh Penguins placed former Senator forward Colin White on waivers today, it was a reminder of how hard it is to evaluate and speculate as an NHL general manager. Not only is it hard to predict if an 18-year-old can play in the league someday, but it's just as hard to predict how impactful he will be down the road, and thus, what to pay him.

Today, so many young players come out of entry-level deals and get paid on potential.

"That guy isn't a Norris Trophy candidate, but we think he will be someday."

"That guy got over 40 points, but we bet he'll get 70, 80, or maybe more someday."

So GMs speculate and go long-term with the player. And the theory is he may seem expensive now, but he'll be a bargain as he ages.

That's what GM Pierre Dorion did with White in August 2019, signing him to a six-year, $28.5 million deal. White was injury-prone and ineffective, and within three seasons, Dorion bought him out. The Sens still owe White $875,000 for each of the next four seasons.

Of course, the deal looks awful now, but only a few people grumbled when it was signed.

White and Thomas Chabot were tied at the hip back then. They were drafted in round one, a few picks apart. They were born on precisely the same day. And in the summer of 2019, they signed long-term deals within a month of each other, signaling better days ahead with a new wave of youth coming along.

That strategy has repeated itself multiple times since in Ottawa, with the Sens going long with players who, in most cases, weren't worth the deal they just signed, but they would be within a year or two.

The Ottawa Senators have eight players locked up for at least the next three to eight seasons. Some of those deals look great, others could be better.

When Dorion signed off on them, he effectively told the world, 'I believe these players will be an important part of our core as we move toward our years of unparalleled success.'

We're still waiting on that.

So, let's take a stab on which long term deals will age best. We'll run this like a traffic light. We'll list the eight players who are locked up, their contract details, and the level of concern about the player.

Green = Zero worries.

Amber = Starting to be concerned. But I think it'll be fine.

Red = Worried. He's not living up to his contract right now.

Green:

Tim Stutzle – seven more years at $8.35 million (AAV). He's earning his money already, and at 22, he's not even at his prime.

Brady Tkachuk – four more years at $8.205 million (AAV). He's nearly a point-per-game player with intangibles for days, even if he hits a cold spell.

Artem Zub – three more years at $4.6 million (AAV). Zub is a competent, hard-to-find, right-shot defenceman who doesn't break the bank. Scoring at a 38-point clip is a nice bonus.

Jake Sanderson – eight more years at $8.05 million (AAV). Sanderson isn't scoring as much as I expected in year two. In fact, in terms of points per game, he's third on the team (0.50) behind both Thomas Chabot (0.58) and Jakob Chychrun (0.57). But it's just his second season, and there's too much to like about his game to worry about anything at 21.

Drake Batherson – three more years at $4.975 million (AAV). Batherson has his detractors who will surely protest this selection. But he had 62 points last season, and he's on pace for 60 this year. Are there flaws? Yes. But if you have a player consistently cracking 60 points and coming in under $5 million, that's not a contract to worry about.

Amber:

Josh Norris – six more years at $7.95 million (AAV). Two years ago, Norris had 35 goals in 66 games. Over an entire season, that's a 42-goal pace. So the Sens paid him to be their number one centre that summer. And then the shoulder injuries started. 

Fast forward to the present, and Norris has 13 goals in 46 games this season, which is a 23-goal pace. How can you not be a little concerned about going from a 42-goal pace to a 23-goal pace? But Norris is still young and probably still trying to find the confidence to battle fully without worrying about injury.

Red:

Thomas Chabot – four more years at $8 million (AAV). Chabot is a smooth skater and a very good offensive defenceman. But through the lens of a 27-year-old with the 14th-highest cap hit in the entire NHL (among defenceman), it's hard not to worry about his inconsistency when the Sens don't have the puck.

Joonas Korpisalo – four more years at $4 million (AAV). Korpisalo has had some nice moments this year, but generally speaking, he's having a tough year and hasn't shown marked improvement since the coaching change. Korpisalo has an .887 save percentage and a 3.40 goals against.

Here's hoping everyone on this list finds their way to Greener pastures.

This exercise – evaluating what the Senators have in a player and predicting what they might be in the future – is an ongoing conversation in the Sens' front office, particularly as they prepare for the NHL trade deadline in a couple of weeks.