The deal for Ullmark still carries some risk for the Senators, especially if he chooses not to sign an extension in the next year.
Steve Staios has made his first big splash as GM of the Ottawa Senators.
On Monday night, the Senators acquired goalie Linus Ullmark from the Boston Bruins. In return, Ottawa gave up the 25th overall pick in this Friday's draft (which originally belonged to the Bruins), centre Mark Kastelic, and goalie Joonas Korpisalo. The Senators will retain 25% of Korpisalo's remaining salary as part of the deal.
Evaluating the winner and loser in a trade can take years. Sometimes, it's known much sooner. Looking at the Senators' history with in-division deals, one would think there would be a "Once Bitten, Twice Shy" approach. Apparently not.
The Matt Murray deal with the Leafs can be viewed as a victory. The same cannot be said for the Dion Phaneuf and Alex DeBrincat trades. The Tarasenko trade with Florida was a forced deal with no way to win.
With the 25th overall pick gone, Belleville defenceman Donovan Sebrango is now the only piece left from last summer's DeBrincat trade with Detroit.
Looking at the deal objectively (which is most difficult at times like this), we may not know who wins the Ullmark deal for a few years. But let's be clear about what needs to happen for the Senators to win it:
EXTENSION FOR ULLMARK
Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman made every Senators fan watching the Game 7 broadcast swallow their hearts in fear of DeBincat Part II by announcing that Ullmark's camp is happy to play out the final year and see what happens rather than discuss an immediate extension.
Ullmark is eligible for an extension on July 1st. With one year left on his deal, he will garner plenty of interest come UFA time, and his Vezina and Jennings Trophies are only two years old.
One encouraging note is that Ullmark had a modified no-trade clause. If he didn't want to be here, he wouldn't be.
To be clear, if an extension is not in the cards, the return at the trade deadline had better get that first-round pick back or a blue-chip prospect, or this trade will be a flop.
ULLMARK MUST OUTPLAY KORPISALO
Given the way previous goalies such as Joey Daccord, Filip Gustavsson, and Cam Talbot have played after leaving Ottawa without having realized their full potential, one can't help but wonder if Korpisalo will enjoy playing behind a well-coached and structured team that plays 200-foot hockey.
Thanks to the Senators picking up 25% of his remaining deal, if Korpisalo plays like he did in LA or Columbus, the Bruins have themselves a very capable backup. The better Korpisalo plays, the better and longer Ullmark has to play. Bonus points if he outplays Jeremy Swayman.
If Ullmark doesn't stay in Ottawa to match the duration of Korpisalo's deal and the return on any deadline day trade is underwhelming, Senators fans will suddenly feel short-changed.
MADS SOGAARD/LEVI MERILAINEN NHL-READY IN 2025?
With Ullmark here to replace Korpisalo, the Senators can groom the dynamic duo in Belleville for at least another season.
Both took steps forward last year, and one will have a chance to ascend to the parent club by 2025. There will surely be opportunities for recall this season, and Sogaard, in particular, will have a chance to seize that backup role full-time if he continues to develop.
If either of these two becomes a legitimate full-time goalie for the Senators, the Ullmark deal will be affordable, and Staios will look like he gambled correctly. If neither can make that jump in 2025, the Senators could have two UFA outgoing goaltenders next year and no one to backfill.
Why was it so important to bring in a goalie with very little term left on his deal when the Senators are a team that has yet to transition from pretender to contender?
Getting Korpisalo off the books is a great move after an underwhelming season. However, there will be a $1 million reminder of him for the next four years while he toils within the division.
Are the Senators a goalie away from being relevant? That seems like a stretch. This deal can be won, but a lot of things will need to go their way.