After an “all over the place” October, what exactly are the Senators now?
Stop me if you've heard this one before. The Senators secured an above .500 record early in the season after beating the Utah/Arizona franchise by four goals on October 22nd, giving fans hope that a trend of historically bad starts was finally behind them.
You'd think we're referring to this year when Ottawa rolled into Utah and won a 4-0 matchup on October 22nd. But the same thing happened on October 22nd, 2022 when the then-Arizona Coyotes dropped a 6-2 decision to the Sens, who sported a 3-2 record after that game.
The Senators then won another game against Dallas on October 24th, giving them a 4-2 record. Immediately after, the Senators lost seven games in a row. They beat the Flyers 4-1 to "improve" to 5-8-1 before concluding November with an 8-13-1 record.
In the 2023-24 season, they also had a 4-4 record after eight games on October 28th, a 3-1 start that turned ugly, and let's just say that season was a write-off by the end of November as well.
This year, they secured a 4-2 record before losing two in a row to Vegas and Colorado, to drop back to .500 at 4-4. The similarities between that lost season and what we've seen so far should be concerning for any Ottawa fan.
In both those seasons, these middling starts were exacerbated by multiple extended losing streaks that would reach five, six, and even seven games. Can the Senators avoid it this time around?
This team's identity is starting to take shape, and there's equal evidence for optimism and pessimism with this team. While the similarities to years past are concerning, there is also reason to believe, not the least of which was an 8-1 beatdown the Senators laid on the St Louis Blues on Tuesday night.
Let's take a closer look.
Injury Prone - Only 9 games into the season, the Senators have again run into a litany of injury issues that threaten to torpedo the season before it even gets started.
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It's tough to get into a groove when you don't have a consistent lineup to develop chemistry. Their reputation as an injury-prone squad is well-earned and has continued into this season.
This team can score in bunches, and the core has taken a step forward. Already more than once this season, the Senators have at least managed to score their way out of trouble and put up a touchdown plus a two-point conversion on the competition. The Sens overcame a disastrous goaltending performance to win against Los Angeles, 8-7, in overtime. They beat Tampa Bay, 5-4, in a game where Forsberg looked leaky, and the score flattered the Lightning for the most part.
Their core stars have come to play so far this season. Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson, and upcoming unrestricted free agent Claude Giroux are all well above a point per game. Tim Stutzle is currently 8th in the league in scoring, only 4 points behind the overall lead, but his 0.48 expected goals (now above 1.00) rating before the St Louis game shows that he has even more to give consistently. Josh Norris and defenseman Jake Sanderson are sporting 8 points in 9 games. Thomas Chabot has also generally looked better and more comfortable this season, especially alongside Nick Jensen, who's been a quality addition.
This success is currently propped up by an excellent power play, which is currently second in the league at over %40 efficiency. If the Sens can keep making teams pay for penalties, they'll be in great shape offensively.
Consistently inconsistent outside of the top six forwards - Injured Shane Pinto only has 3 points in 6 games, is -3 with an abysmal 0.16 expected goals for rating, and is out indefinitely. He will likely be better when he returns. Ridley Grieg gets under opponents' skin, but the team needs better than 1 goal in 6 games and a -4 rating from him, especially since he's now getting prime ice time with Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle on the top line.
Which new addition to the Sens' roster currently leads that batch of players in scoring? Noah Gregor? Nick Cousins? David Perron? Michael Amadio? Of all these new faces, Adam Gaudette and Nick Jensen share the lead with 5 points each. It's a problem when Zack MacEwen has more goals (two) than any other bottom-six forward outside Gaudette. It's probably not what the team expected so far.
Road trips have been this team's Achilles heel in the past, and this season so far has been no different. Currently, they are 4-1 at home, but a poor 1-3 on the road. This team absolutely must figure out more ways to win on the road if they want any shot at the playoffs, and they need quality shifts from the bottom six against unfavourable matchups to be able to do that.
When the Sens can roll four lines like they did against St Louis, they can dominate.
The Senators have kept pace in a tough division so far - The team found themselves second in the division before their matchup with Vegas. Then, they dropped to last place after two losses. They're back up to 4th with the win against St. Louis, 3rd in points percentage. Their expected goals for has dropped off a cliff during their recent 3-game Western road trip, suggesting that their 4-0 win against Utah was lucky, and they may have deserved even worse than deflating losses against Vegas and Colorado.
Their cumulative shot attempts for percentage (Corsi) sits at just over 49 percent, and that's after a dominant game against the Blues. The injuries above play a role, but it's not the only reason.
All too common in previous seasons is one loss turning into extended losing streaks of five, six, or even seven games. A streak like that in a tight division (where 3 points currently separates 2nd place from last) at any time will crush their chances.
Fortunately, this season, after they lay down a loss, they tend to stop the bleeding. This season, they've reached five wins in October for the first time since 2017, and their longest losing streak has been two games so far. It looks like new coach Travis Green has them looking more focused on the game in front of them than the standings.
Besides a 4-1 stinker against the Canadiens, the Senators have been competitive in nearly every game. They're beating the teams they should be beating, and fans should forgive some losses against contenders like New Jersey, Vegas, and Colorado.
Goaltending is still inconsistent but better than in seasons past. After opening the season with a 3-1 win against the defending cup champ Florida Panthers, Sens fans seemed to breathe a sigh of relief that goaltending woes were finally behind this team.
Not so fast.
Hands up, everyone, who thought that not only would Anton Forsberg start more games than Ullmark by the end of October but also sport better stats? Forsberg is currently sporting a .3.27 GAA and a .895 save percentage, numbers that would be way uglier without a sparkling shutout performance against Utah.
After signing a monster four-year deal that makes him one of the highest-paid goalies in the league, Ullmark has been injured and had two poor starts against Montreal and Vegas. It's been a bit of a false start for Ullmark, and the sample size remains small. Still, an .885 save percentage and 3.35 GAA before the St Louis game is not what the team expects out of him. Fortunately, his excellent one-goal-against performance has already boosted those stats to 2.76 GAA and a .904 save percentage. The team needs Ullmark to perform at the level he showed against Florida and St Louis (and be available every night) if they want to make any headway in an exceptionally competitive Atlantic division.
So what is this team's identity now?
The unfortunate truth is that they still don't have one. After seven years out of the playoffs, they're an injury-prone squad with inconsistent goaltending that can score in bunches but can't win on the road.
It's early enough, and there are some signs that the narrative is changing. However, you can only identify strengths and weaknesses with a full lineup. You can't identify quality depth if you're losing matchups when you don't have first change on the road. You can't identify actual defensive issues when you're not getting saves. You can't identify goaltending issues when you're giving up more than you're getting.
It's still early, and the real test of November, a month that has been brutal for the Sens in the past, looms. After this month, we'll have a much clearer picture of what this team is made of. It's still very early, but as Sens fans know, it can get late real early in an NHL season.