If the Jets decide to trade Connor Hellebuyck, he'll help some NHL team for next season. But there are several reasons why the price tag won't be worth it, especially here in Ottawa.
The Ottawa Senators, like many teams, face crucial decisions when it comes to goaltending next year. With the current tandem looking like Anton Forsberg, coming off double knee injuries, and Mads Sogaard, who is a promising but unproven prospect, there is a level of uncertainty for a team expected to make the playoffs.
With Winnipeg Jets' goaltender Connor Hellebuyck's name circulating in the trade rumours, as the Jets are hurtling toward a transition period, the Senators have at least been loosely linked as a potential fit. However, there are several key reasons why Ottawa should steer clear of acquiring Hellebuyck.
Cost of Acquisition
Having won the Vezina Trophy in 2020, Connor Hellebuyck is undeniably one of the premier goaltenders in the league. As such, any trade for Hellebuyck would come at a hefty cost for the Sens. The Jets would undoubtedly demand a significant package in return, likely including top prospects, young players, and/or high draft picks.
For a team like the Senators, who have recently traded two 1st round picks for Alex DeBrincat and Jakob Chychrun, it may be risky to trade another premier pick, especially since the development path of their most recent 1st round pick, Tyler Boucher, is very much up in the air. And currently, they do not pick until the 4th round in this year’s draft.
As for existing prospects, it is starting to get a little thin with most of Ottawa’s young, impactful players having already made the jump. So if the Jets are looking at this area, it is reasonable to assume they may ask for Shane Pinto or Ridley Greig. Sens fans and management alike have been hesitant to part with these players in the past, so I don’t see why they would now.
Salary Cap Implications
In addition to the cost of acquisition, the Senators must consider the long-term financial implications of acquiring Hellebuyck. He is currently signed to a six-year contract with an average annual value of $6.17 million, and heading into the last year of his deal. Adding such a substantial contract to the team's payroll would limit their ability to make other important roster improvements.
Additionally, this assumes that the Senators move on from DeBrincat because there is absolutely no way to make it work with the salary cap, unless another major contract is moved out, and it's hard to see that being the case. Replacing his goals internally, after spending that money on Hellebuyck, will be very difficult.
With Pinto and Jake Sanderson needing hefty raises over the next two off-seasons, it will already be tight to sign DeBrincat to an extension around $8M AAV. Therefore Hellebuyck, surely demanding nearly $10M AAV, if not more, will be extremely hard to fit in, let alone the conversation of if he would want to re-sign in Ottawa.
Both Shane Pinto (centre) and Jake Sanderson (right) will need new deals over the next two summers.Development of Young Goalies
The Senators have invested in the development of young goaltenders such as Sogaard and Leevi Merilainen, who have shown promise and potential. Trading for Hellebuyck would block their chance to get NHL games, and although that is not a bad thing at all, it may be an unnecessary investment.
It is crucial for the Senators to make the playoffs next year, so I can understand that an improvement is needed, but goalies are always a complete roll of the dice. These young goaltenders represent the future of the Senators' netminding position and should be given the chance to develop and contribute to the team's long-term success. Management has attempted to fast forward this position twice now, with Murray and Talbot. It wouldn't be the worst idea to take a breath for the time being.
It is understandable that the Ottawa Senators want to make an upgrade in goal, and no one is saying they shouldn’t, but Hellebuyck would be “overkill”.
With significant money committed to the young core, and more to come, his contract demands will be too much for this cap structure, and too much of a risk for one year of an unproven playoff team.
It would be smart to step back for a second and see how the summers go for Forsberg and Sogaard, as both have the ability to play quality games in the NHL. However, it may also be smart to explore a smaller trade or UFA signing, to solidify a goalie tandem of Forsberg coming off double knee injury and Sogaard who is promising, but not proven.
Bottom line, Hellebuyck is not the right fit for this Ottawa team.