How Much Does Veteran Ottawa Senator Forward Claude Giroux Have Left In The Tank?
The popular 37-year-old is in the final year of his three-year, $19.5 million contract.
In a league riddled with parity, the one opponent who remains undefeated is Father Time.
Considering how Claude Giroux has two goals in his last 22 games, one of which was an empty net insurance marker against Minnesota on December 29th, it is hard to blame fans for wondering how much gas the 37-year-old has left in the tank.
What is troubling when it relates to Giroux is how, for his first two seasons in Ottawa, he was an absolute monster who showed up in big moments or whenever the team needed a momentum swing.
It simply has not been there as often this season.
In fairness, it would be naive to hold him to the standards he set in his first season in the nation's capital when he scored 35 goals and had 79 points in 82 games. He dipped to 21 goals and 64 points last season, but Giroux's production has fallen off considerably this season.
Using NaturalStatTrick's data, Giroux has four goals and 12 assists at five-on-five. They represent a sharp decline from previous seasons, but it is magnified when looking at his rate stats at five-on-five:
- 0.39 goals per 60 (second-lowest mark of his career)
- 1.56 points per 60 (fourth-lowest mark of his career)
- 5.83 shots per 60 (worst mark of his career)
What stands out is placing these numbers in the historical context of Giroux's career. His worst statistical season was indisputably his 2016-17 campaign, in which he finished the year with 14 goals and 58 points in 82 games. Giroux spent most of that season trying to recover from a few significant surgeries to his core. In the summer of 2016, he had surgery to repair bilateral abdominal tears and a torn labrum in his right hip. By his own admission, he didn't start feeling close to one hundred percent until the latter stages of that season.
This season, it is hard to figure out what is to blame.
A glance at Giroux's NHL Edge data does not reveal much.
His top skating is down from where it was during the 2022-23 season when his 23.38 mph placed him in the 96th percentile, but his 22.22 mph this season is higher than the league average. Conversely, he has more 22 mph bursts this season than he did playing an entire season in 2022-23.
The more significant discrepancies exist in Giroux's shot data. His volume, velocity and efficiency are all down. This season, Giroux has only shot two pucks more than 80 mph; granted, one of them was 86.80, which placed him in the 64th percentile for top speed. In 2022-23, Giroux got shots with velocity off far more regularly. His top speed of 93.08 mph placed him in the 83rd percentile, but he was consistently getting shots off at higher velocities.
2022-23:
- 90 to 100 mph shots: 4
- 80 to 90 mph shots: 17
- 70 to 80 mph shots: 53
This season has been a struggle, but in fairness to the popular veteran, goals have not been easy for the Senators to come by. They have already been shut out five times this month. In the words of TSN 1200 producer Matt Hamer, "Nobody has done Dry January better than the Sens."
It is easy to look around the Ottawa Senators' dressing room and point fingers at players capable of producing more.
The captain, Brady Tkachuk, has one even strength goal in his last 16 games. Drake Batherson? One even strength goal in his last 20 games. Shane Pinto? He has not scored an even strength goal in his last 15 games. Tim Stützle is a marked improvement over these players but only has three goals and five points in his last 13 games.
The wrinkle for Giroux and the Senators is that the parties face a contractual dilemma. The veteran is in the final year of his three-year, $19.5 million contract that he signed on July 13, 2022. Giroux can test the open market this summer as an impending unrestricted free agent.
The good news for Giroux is that he still has a positive impact at both ends of the ice. HockeyViz's data shows that his isolated impacts on offence and defence are still positive.
This scoring drought may cost him money and security, however. Another productive year could have spurred another multi-year offer at a reasonably high average annual value.
Now, Giroux will need a strong finish to reaffirm that he is a player worth committing money and term to. If he can dial it in down the stretch, it is a situation the Senators will welcome. They would savour some big G-Money moments down the stretch as they make their push towards the postseason.
Got a comment on this story? Leave us a note below and join the Hockey News' fan forum, the Ottawa Senators Roundtable. Be sure to bookmark The Hockey News Ottawa for more stories like this.