Chabot had wrist surgery in the offseason and now wishes he'd done it sooner. We review the data to see how much the injury may have influenced his performance.
With training camp just around the corner, optimism abounds. The standings are reset. Management is happy with their offseason acquisitions. Players are either arriving in the best shape of their lives or have had time to recover from their injuries.
Ottawa Senators defenceman Thomas Chabot falls into the latter category.
Speaking to the assembled media at the Senators Community Foundation Charity Open on Monday, Chabot discussed the surgical procedure performed on his wrist back in May.
"Yeah, took care of some stuff this summer. A bit of a different one, obviously. Never really went through the process of surgeries (until now), but everything went well. The doctor did an amazing job, obviously, with the staff here. And recovery and everything, everything feels pretty much good. So you know what? It's exciting. It's gonna be fun coming into the season with no bumps and bruises and just feeling healthy."
Considering how much digital ink has been spent this offseason focusing on the Senators' blue line and concerns about its quality of depth, it is certainly encouraging to hear Chabot say he finally feels healthy.
Injuries have been a problem for the 27-year-old defenceman in recent years. Across the last three seasons alone, he has missed 68 games combined.
If the Senators are going to jockey for a playoff position, having a healthy and productive Chabot is imperative, especially given how few internal depth options there are behind rookie Tyler Kleven.
Whenever an athlete has surgery on an intricate joint, concerns about it reoccurring now or potentially down the road will always exist. Still, hearing Chabot say he should have had the procedure done years ago was encouraging.
"If I had known how I feel right now, I would have probably taken care of that a long time ago," Chabot said. "But you know what? It is what it is. It was my decision to kind of hold back and not do it."
Revisionism, especially with injuries, is a mental hurdle every athlete must overcome. What matters is that Chabot confidently believes his work during the offseason brings him close to full health.
"Like I said, it's pretty much back to 100%. It's more of getting reps and skating again, over and over again, and just doing it. And you know what? That's what camp is for. It is getting back into the stick battles and the hockey game-like situations. I'm just happy. It just healed up and feels really good."
When asked how long the issue had bothered him, Chabot stated that the problems began, "Like two years ago, two and a half years ago. Whatever it was, it's been a long time."
Looking at Chabot's data at Evolving-Hockey, I wanted to see if any noticeable trends could be explained by injury. Interestingly, Chabot's offensive production rates in 2023-24 (all situations) represented his best since the 2018-19 campaign when he established career highs in goals (14) and points (55). His 0.46 goals per 60 and 1.53 points per 60 certainly represented modest improvements over his previous two seasons.
There are minor concerns at five-on-five. His points per 60 rate looks less impressive than his all-situations one, and his individual shots on goal rate and individual expected goal rates were the lowest of his career. But, it is difficult to reach any conclusive findings from some subtle statistical differences.
On the defensive side of the puck, things get a little more interesting.
Chabot's never been a consistently effective defensive player, but according to Evolving-Hockey's 'Total Defence' metric that looks at a player's defensive contributions at even strength and while shorthanded, combining their value into one number, Chabot's best defensive value season was 2021-22.
In the two seasons since, his defensive metrics have suffered.
Although the Senators have continued to be on the right side of the shots and expected goals battle, the Senators have been on the wrong side of the real goals against (GF%) at five-on-five with Chabot on the ice. NaturalStatTrick's data also shows that the rate at which the Senators allowed goals and expected goals increased over the past two seasons.
It makes sense for Chabot to look forward to those competitive battles. He mentioned that his injury negatively impacted the way he had to play to deal with the pain. If he is consciously changing his on-ice behaviour to manage his pain threshold, it will adversely affect his play.
These camp battles will be a stress test. He will want to see how his wrist holds up to the rigours of camp. Assuming everything goes well, it will significantly boost his confidence and change his on-ice behaviour.
Another significant development that will have a positive influence on Chabot's game is the presence of a regular defensive partner who is a natural right-shot.
Every expectation is that Nick Jensen will get that opportunity. When asked whether he has spent time with Jensen during the offseason, Chabot acknowledged that he is trying to build their partnership on and off the ice.
"Yeah. We've skated together. He's a very good skater. He (plays) very well defensively. Obviously, we've only skated a few times together, but I think throughout camp and the next couple days here before camp gets started, you get to know each other better, and kind of feed off each other on the ice. And, you know what? He's been awesome. It's been great getting to know him. We played a few rounds of golf and have been around each other at the rink, so I think everybody's fitting right in and that's what makes it good."
If Jensen can help bolster Chabot's defensive game, it, along with the Jake Sanderson-Artem Zub pairing, should give the Senators two potent duos. Considering the questions about the quality of depth and experience on the third pairing, the top four will log a ton of minutes.
Having the best version of Thomas Chabot out there will go a long way to improving an organizational weakness that has troubled the Senators since the mid-2000s.