So close, yet still so far. Nightly out-of-town scoreboard watching has become an infuriating experience for the Senators organization and their fans. While the Senators find themselves in an incredible stretch of hockey, most of the teams they’ve been chasing have been on similar hot streaks. Stingy defense, timely scoring, and improved goaltending don’t mean as much when your competition isn’t conceding ground. As of this writing on March 12, while the Senators have chipped away double-digit point deficits since the calendar turned to 2026, the catchable teams for the Senators in the Bruins, Red Wings, Canadiens, Penguins, Blue Jackets, and Islanders have a 32-14-14 combined record in their last 10 games, which means making up ground has been a slow process and the runway is starting to run out with 18 games left on the slate. After the Senators fell 3-2 to Montreal, head coach Travis Green kept the loss in perspective. Atlantic leaders Buffalo and Tampa are virtually uncatchable barring a historic collapse by one of those teams, and even Buffalo’s crushing weight of historical losing won’t be enough for them to miss entirely this time. Montreal in particular has forged an identity as a team that regularly comes back late in games with last-minute heroics. The Atlantic Division has only seen 9 regulation losses in the last ten games combined between Montreal, Boston, Detroit, and Ottawa. Five of those regulation losses belong to Detroit, which probably makes them the most catchable team for Ottawa considering their two games in hand and head-to-head matchup with the Wings remaining. So in this bizarre season, you basically have 7 teams who are all on excellent stretches of hockey competing for 5 playoff spots between 3rd in the Atlantic, 2nd/3rd in the Metro, and the two wild card spots. In other words, two very good teams are likely not just going to hit the golf course in mid-April wondering what could have been, but actually compete with and break records set by the greatest teams of all time to miss the dance entirely. In terms of sheer talent, Ottawa and company can’t compete with the 1969-70 Montreal Canadiens, who missed the playoffs with more than half their roster consisting of future Hall of Famers. Count ’em, that year’s Habs had 11 future Hall of Famers on the roster, including Yvan Cournoyer, Henri Richard, Jean Beliveau, Serge Savard, and Guy Lapointe. That team missed the playoffs with 92 points (with no loser points) and 38 wins/16 ties in 76 games and a +43 goal differential! That year’s team missed the final spot to the Rangers, who had an identical record but a +57 differential, the tiebreaker used at the time. It’s worth noting that this was after a recent six-team expansion in which all the “western division” teams were limping along with expansion rosters and cast-offs. In the West Division, the Pittsburgh Penguins made the playoffs in second place with a 26-38-12 record and a -56 goal differential. The Oakland Seals got the last playoff spot in the west with a 22-40-14 record and a -74 goal differential in that division. St. Louis claimed first place with one less win and 5 more regulation losses than Montreal had that year. I’m sure Montreal fans took solace in the team’s two Cup wins in 1968 and 1969 before that season and six more Cup victories in the 1970s, including four straight from 1976-1979, so don’t feel too bad for them. So there’s some comfort for anxious fans who aren’t seeing quality hockey translate to a comfortable playoff spot these days. The lopsided nature of the conferences used to be far more pronounced in a 12-team league where half the league was recent expansion franchises. The difference between West and East is huge this year, but it was far worse once upon a time. Other teams had top-level talent and couldn’t close the deal. The 2012-13 Tampa Bay Lightning and 1948-49 Chicago Blackhawks had the league’s 1-2 scorers but missed the playoffs. But what about in the modern, 30+ team NHL era? The current record for points in a season without a playoff appearance is shared by four teams. The 2017-18 Florida Panthers, 2018-19 Montreal Canadiens (co-record holders at 44 wins for a non-playoff team), and 2024-25 Calgary Flames all finished with 96 points and were rewarded by cleaning out their lockers after game 82. The fourth team? That would be the 2014-15 Boston Bruins, who lost their spot to the Senators during the historic Hamburglar run in the last week of the season. Senators fans can hang their hat on the fact that history could absolutely repeat itself with only a slight dip in play by the Bruins. But not so fast. As good as the Senators have been, the Bruins have matched them save for save, goal for goal in 2026. The two teams were tied for the best goal differential in the last 20 games at 21 each before Wednesday’s NHL games. Ottawa’s goal percentage at 61.9 percent in that stretch is second in the league, second only to, yup, Boston’s 62.96 percent. Luck and goaltending have been bigger factors than ever, considering Ottawa leads the league in expected goals in that same stretch at 56.94 percent while Boston sits 27th at 47.25. Also in Ottawa’s favor is that according to tankathon.com, Boston, Columbus, and Pittsburgh have the top 3 hardest schedules remaining, while Ottawa’s is 11th. One or both teams that will miss the playoffs in this year’s east could very well break that aforementioned 96-point record. According to Moneypuck.com, the point projections for the East’s mid-range playoff contenders as of March 12 break down as follows: Montreal (102.4) Detroit (98.4) Pittsburgh (98.4) New York Islanders (98.4) Boston (98.2) Columbus (97) Ottawa (95.3) This has created an odd microcosm where Ottawa’s playoff odds (according to Moneypuck) on March 11th stood at 55.8 percent. But one loss to Montreal later has wildly dropped their chances to 40.6 percent to make the playoffs, but they're still in the top ten to win the Cup at 4.5 percent. The Senators also boast the fourth-best odds to make the final out of the East at 7.9 percent, which is crazy considering they sit at least five points back of the eight teams in playoff positions. So if the cutoff is expected to be 96-98 points this season, Ottawa will need to win 13 of their remaining 18 games (or pull 26 points out of the 36 available), with added focus on winning as many of the head-to-head matchups as possible against Eastern teams in front of them like Pittsburgh, the Islanders (2), and Detroit. So what does this all mean? If you’re a fan of high-quality hockey decided by razor-thin margins that will end in euphoria for one team and utter heartbreak for another, then this is the season for you. If you’re a fan of a Western Conference team in a playoff spot, you’re just grateful to avoid the knife fight going on in the Eastern standings. And if you’re a fan of one of the Eastern teams that goes home after a stellar regular season, well, you’ll have to take solace in the fact that your NHL team will be considered among the greatest to ever miss the playoffs. So... yay? Andrew Sztein The Hockey News This article was originally published at The Hockey News. 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