Pittsburgh's veteran defenseman is struggling in the season's earlygoing - so we take a deep dive into the numbers behind his struggles

When asked about his performance up to this point in the season, Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Kris Letang gave an honest answer.

"I mean, it's hard to say, you know?" Letang said. "It's a team game. The record shows that we're not playing really well right now, we're inconsistent... and I think it's the same for me. I played good games on the road trip, but [Monday] was not a good game, so it's tough to really assess. I feel it's divided between games, there's no consistency to our game, as of my game, it's kinda the same thing."

Letang and defense partner Matt Grzelcyk endured a particularly disastrous game in the Penguins' embarrassing 7-1 loss against the Dallas Stars on Monday. Letang was on the ice for five of Dallas' six goals in the first period and was a minus-4 overall, and Grzelcyk was a minus-3 at the end of it. Letang's minus-10 on the season is the worst mark among team defensemen and second only to forward Drew O'Connor's minus-14.

As it stands now, Letang has produced two goals and six points in 17 games for the Penguins. He is fourth in team scoring among defensemen - behind Erik Karlsson, Matt Grzelcyk, and Marcus Pettersson - and is on track for 29 points, which would be his lowest production year since 2013-14, when he played only 37 games and recorded 22 points. 

His only season with a lower 82-game points pace was his first full rookie season in 2007-08, when he registered six goals and 17 points in 63 games for a 22-point pace.

And those are just the raw offensive numbers. The analytics haven't been all that kind to him, either.

Here are some other noteworthy stats and analytics from Moneypuck:

- Letang currently has 18 giveaways, pacing him at 87 for the season, which would be the second-highest total of his career. He also owns 10 defensive zone giveaways, which paces him at 49 for the season - tied for the third-highest total of his career.

- He is last among Penguins defensemen in shots blocked per game (0.8) and shots blocked per 60 minutes (2.14).

- He is 14th overall on the team and fourth among team defensemen in on-ice expected goals share (xGF%) at 45.7 percent and 12th in on-ice expected goals per 60 with 3.25.

- He is 17th in team ranks for expected goals against per 60 with 3.86, with just Jack St. Ivany, Drew O'Connor, and Bryan Rust surrendering more.

- Letang is 13th in team ranks and fourth among defensemen in high-danger shot attempts against per 60 with 4.12, with defensemen St. Ivany and Pettersson allowing more.

- He is tied with Pettersson for 17th in on-ice goal differential (minus-9) and is also 17th in on-ice expected goal differential (minus-4).

- On a positive note, Letang does lead Penguins' defensemen in high-danger expected goals (0.68) and is second in expected goals (1.9) behind only Erik Karlsson (2.3). 

And, according to Hockey Stat Cards, his minus-.27 net rating is the team's third-worst mark. His average game score has also seen a drastic dropoff from last season, where it was .52. It is now minus-.21.

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In addition, according to data from Natural Stat Trick, the pairing of Letang and Grzelcyk has 43 high-danger chances for (HDCF) in comparison to 51 high-danger chances against (HDCA) - as well as a 47.88 expected goals share (xGF%) - which isn't ideal for a top pairing at five-on-five. In comparison, the second pairing of Marcus Pettersson and Erik Karlsson has generated 66 HDCF, 49 HDCA, and a 59.34 xGF%.

Grzelcyk's performance so far this season certainly isn't doing Letang any favors, but in terms of xGF%, Letang hasn't fared any better with Pettersson at 47.58. Away from Letang (and, mostly, with Karlsson), Pettersson has generated a 59.08 xGF%. Grzelcyk has generated a meager 37.01 xGF% away from Letang.

Given his role on the top defensive pairing - and his five-on-five deployment mostly with the Penguins' top-six - Letang's numbers, both individually and with Grzelcyk, should be far better than they are.

There are some underlyings suggesting Letang is generating some offense that simply isn't being finished or executed, and that goes for himself and his teammates. But this rate isn't what it used to be.

According to data from Moneypuck, here is a year-by-year look at Letang's Corsi (CF%), Fenwick (FF%), and xGF% since 2021-22, when Letang was in a contract year and had the most productive season of his career with 10 goals and 68 points in 78 games:

- 2021-22: 54 CF%, 55 FF%, 56 xGF%
- 2022-23: 56 CF%, 56 FF%, 57.6 xGF%
- 2023-24: 50 CF%, 49 FF%, 48.8 xGF%
- 2024-25: 52 CF%, 50 FF%, 45.7 xGF%

Of note, Letang's chance creation metrics began to take a hit when Karlsson came to Pittsburgh in 2023-24 and assumed much of the offensive duties. But, being that Letang is on the top pairing, he should still be generating at a pretty solid rate.

Letang is getting beat defensively and not generating nearly enough offensively for a top-pair defenseman, and there are likely some factors affecting his performance - one being his most regular defense partners (Ryan Graves last season, Grzelcyk this season).

Another, unfortunately, is likely chalked up to age. 

And some of this shows in his skating. According to NHL Edge data, Letang's top skating speed for 2024-25 is 21.68 mph, which - although still above the league average of 21.15 mph - is well below his top skating speed of 22.38 from 2023-24. 

He had two bursts of 22-plus mph, 43 bursts of 20-22 mph, and 331 bursts of 18-20 mph in 2023-24. So far, in 2024-25, he hasn't had any 22-plus bursts (not very worrisome yet), and he's on pace for just 24 bursts of 20-22 mph. He's set to outpace his previous 18-20 mph burst total at 395.

That middle range is key. He's on pace to dock 18 of those bursts from last season, which is quite a significant drop. And that would be his lowest total over the past four years, which was previously 33 from 2022-23.

Speed and acceleration certainly isn't everything, and this data is, obviously, limited. But it could be an indicator that Letang is beginning to lose one of the facets of his game that made him so hard to play against, especially defensively. It means that he likely has a more difficult time backchecking and getting back into plays, which could also factor in on his rush defense and one-on-one defense.

All in all, there is still room for Letang to turn things around, and with more trades seemingly on the horizon, it is possible that he sees a new defense partner by the end of the season. But, as of now, he is not playing up to the standards of a top-pairing defenseman.