With NHL rosters due at 5:00 p.m. Monday, THN - Pittsburgh provides a look at the Penguins' cap situation, the injury factors, and the projected roster
It looks like the final 2024-25 Penguins' roster has come down to one final spot.
On Sunday, the Penguins announced their last round of waivers leading up to the NHL roster submission deadline at 5:00 p.m. on Monday, which included defenseman Sebastian Aho and forward Boko Imama.
Who it didn't include? Three prospects who have each earned their way into the conversation for what could be one roster spot. And - more than likely - it will all come down to the injury situation.
Before we dive into the hypotheticals, let's go over who remains on the Penguins' 28-man training camp roster.
Remaining training camp roster
Forwards
- Sidney Crosby
- Drew O'Connor
- Bryan Rust
- Evgeni Malkin
- Michael Bunting
- Rickard Rakell
- Lars Eller
- Valtteri Puustinen
- Jesse Puljujarvi
- Blake Lizotte
- Kevin Hayes
- Cody Glass
- Noel Acciari
- Anthony Beauvillier
- Rutger McGroarty
- Vasily Ponomarev
- Matt Nieto
Defensemen
- Kris Letang
- Matt Grzelcyk
- Erik Karlsson
- Marcus Pettersson
- Ryan Graves
- Jack St. Ivany
- Ryan Shea
- Harrison Brunicke
Goaltenders
- Tristan Jarry
- Alex Nedeljkovic
- Joel Blomqvist
The injury situation
- Erik Karlsson (day-to-day, upper-body)
- Bryan Rust (day-to-day, lower-body)
- Vasily Ponomarev (day-to-day, upper-body)
- Alex Nedeljkovic (week-to-week, lower-body)
- Matt Nieto (month-to-month, lower-body)
- Blake Lizotte (indefinite, concussion)
Karlsson is skating full-contact with the team and is expected to be ready for opening night on Oct. 9. Rust, Ponomarev, and Lizotte are managing their injuries, and their status for the opener is unknown.
Nedeljkovic and Nieto are expected to miss some time.
The cap situation
As it stands now, the Penguins sit exactly $820,715 over the cap. However, this includes all 28 players who are currently on the training camp roster plus the accrued dead cap with buyouts and retention slots.
More than likely, Nieto, who is out month-to-month after undergoing reconstructive MCL surgery this summer, is headed to long-term injured reserve (LTIR). His $900,000 cap hit would be nullified for his stint, meaning the Penguins would be cap-compliant by $79,285 regardless by putting Nieto on LTIR.
Ideally, they'd have a little more wiggle room. However, this gives them the flexibility to roster 23 players, which is a commodity they haven't always had in recent years.
And it also gives them the flexibility to choose from any of the prospects left who are, presumably, battling for the final roster spot.
Roster options
Puustinen, who some thought may fall victim to waivers, was not waived by 2 p.m. on Sunday, making it impossible to waive him before the Monday roster deadline. No other players who need to clear can be waived before the deadline.
As mentioned before, Nieto will likely go on LTIR. Since Nedeljkovic is week-to-week, he will also, presumably, begin the season on IR (even if not LTIR).
Therefore, the final roster spot will either be assumed by Lizotte - if he does not require an IR stint - or one of McGroarty, Ponomarev, or Brunicke.
If Lizotte stays on the active roster, the Penguins will have 14 forwards, seven defensemen, and two goaltenders - assuming the aforementioned players go on IR and Rust does not.
However, if Lizotte does go on IR, this leaves 13 forwards, seven defensemen, and two goaltenders - 22 players - before factoring in McGroarty, Ponomarev, and Brunicke.
Ponomarev is currently day-to-day. In order for him not to be on the NHL roster, he would either have to be healthy so he can be assigned to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (WBS) or placed on IR so he doesn't occupy a roster and cap slot.
If Ponomarev isn't healthy - and it comes down to McGroarty and Brunicke, assuming all other factors mentioned - the final roster decision could very well come down to whether or not Rust is good to go for Oct. 9.
If Rust is good to go, it's conceivable that the team rolls with 13 forwards, two goaltenders, and eight defensemen, including Brunicke. If Rust isn't healthy on Oct. 9, it would make sense for the team to carry an extra forward - in this case, McGroarty.
In other words, the final roster will probably be completely dependent on the injury situation with forwards Lizotte and Rust.
Predicting the final NHL roster
Given the injury situation and how the preseason unfolded, I predict this will be the opening lineup on Oct. 9:
Forwards
O'Connor-Crosby-Beauvillier
Bunting-Malkin-Rakell
McGroarty-Eller-Puljujarvi
Hayes-Glass-Acciari
Extra forwards: Puustinen, Rust (day-to-day)
Defensemen
Grzelcyk-Letang
Pettersson-Karlsson
Graves-St. Ivany
Extra defenseman: Shea
Goaltenders
Jarry, Blomqvist
Of course, nothing is a given, but Rust has not practiced in nearly a week. I don't think his injury will be serious enough to warrant an IR stint, but the Penguins will want to have an extra forward in that case.
If, however, Rust is good to go, I think Brunicke gets the nine game trial. Unless he impresses to the point where he leaves the Penguins no choice but to keep him, he would be sent back after the nine games, at which time Lizotte, McGroarty, or Ponomarev would take his place on the roster, barring health.
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