
Despite their overall disappointing start to the season, there is one big reason to be somewhat optimistic looking ahead - and it starts with the big guys
Even though the Pittsburgh Penguins still sit seventh in the Metropolitan Division at 12-14-4, they are still only two points removed from a wild card spot thanks to their 5-2 record over the last seven games.
The Philip Tomasino trade on Nov. 25 perfectly coincides with the beginning of their winning stretch, and it certainly seemed to energize a team that looked dead in the water. The Penguins are playing more cohesively and less high-risk, and they're getting much better goaltending.
However, folks can't be blamed for having a high degree of doubt about the legitimacy of this recent stretch.
The team is still at a league-worst minus-30 in goal differential. According to MoneyPuck, they're also dead-last in goal differential above expected at minus-26.66, they're second-worst only to the San Jose Sharks in expected goals against at 69.98, and they've surrendered the fifth-most high-danger shots against at 73. They've also had goaltending struggles throughout the season.
All that being said, there is one huge reason for a more optimistic outlook - and it starts with their two biggest stars.
Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin - up to this point - haven't produced to their standards. In this most recent 5-2 stretch, Crosby has no goals and six points, while Malkin has one goal and five points.
On the season, Crosby is off to the slowest start of his career at eight goals and 27 points in 30 games, which equates to a 22-goal, 74-point pace and the lowest pace of his career. Malkin is only on pace for 16 goals - which is, by far, the lowest goal pace of his career - and he currently has six goals and 25 points in 30 games.
The fact of the matter is that the Penguins' biggest players aren't contributing on the scoresheet at their accustomed rates and at the rates the team needs them to.
Despite that, Pittsburgh is currently winning games in pretty convincing fashion.
They have scored five or more goals in four of those seven games. They're getting production from up and down their lineup, with 26 goals in those seven games not being scored by 87 or 71. And their depth scoring doesn't seem to be a fluke, either.
Third-line center Blake Lizotte has produced six goals and nine points in 14 games for a 35-goal pace, Anthony Beauvillier is on pace for 19 goals, Michael Bunting is pacing 20 goals (with most of his production coming on the third line). Those three players have combined for 20 goals and 32 points so far this season.
Tomasino has also provided a spark alongside Malkin, producing three goals and four points in his first six games with the Penguins after having just one point in 11 games with Nashville. Cody Glass - recently promoted to Malkin's line - has a goal and two points in the three games since his promotion.
And top-line wingers Rickard Rakell (11 goals, 18 points) and Bryan Rust (9 goals, 16 points) are scoring at 30-goal and 33-goal paces, respectively.
In addition, the Penguins are getting offensive contributions from more players on their blue line this season. Erik Karlsson has 19 points and is producing at a 52-point pace - similar to last season - and Matt Grzelcyk has as many points as Kris Letang with 12. Marcus Pettersson currently has 13 points and is on pace for six goals and 35 points - both of which would be career highs.
In other words, the Penguins are finding ways to produce high levels of offense even though their top producers aren't producing at the levels we've seen. Their expected goals for is second in the league at 69.64 behind only Carolina at 69.9, and their goals-for above expected of minus-12.64 is second-worst in the league - meaning they should be scoring even more than they are right now.
They also have a more talented pool of prospects - including Tristan Broz, Vasily Ponomarev, Rutger McGroarty, and Ville Koivunen - who could provide an additional boost to the Penguins if called upon.
Obviously, the deficient team defense and uneven goaltending may be too much to overcome and could still sabotage their season. But, in terms of offense, the fact that the team is getting it done without their two big guns should be reason for optimism on that front - because it's a good bet they'll start producing their share of offense, too.
Only time will tell if this offense will be enough to make a playoff push.
