If Things Keep Going South, Don't Sleep On This Forward As A Potential Trade Candidate

The Pittsburgh Penguins are approaching some critical territory when it comes to their season, as the next few weeks will determine what path they take for the rest of the season. 

And, if things continue to trend in a downward spiral, there could be a an under-the-radar trade candidate to keep an eye on. 

There is already a lot of talk about defenseman Erik Karlsson and forward Rickard Rakell with regards to the trade market, as Pierre LeBrun of TSN reported Thursday that Karlsson is drawing interest from the Carolina Hurricanes. There was also a rumor swirling around earlier in the week, when ex-NHL player Keith Yandle said on Tuesday's episode of the podcast Spittin' Chiclets that he heard Rakell rejected a trade to the Chicago Blackhawks.

Rumors and whispers aside, if the Penguins and Kyle Dubas are focused on obtaining higher-value assets, they might not want to rule out dealing center Tommy Novak, either.

To clarify, nothing at this point has officially been suggested or indicated that Pittsburgh would be looking to move the 29-year-old Novak, who just signed a three-year contract extension over the summer that kicks in next season. However, given his start to the season, it might not be the worst option to consider.

For starters, Novak co-leads the team in goals with seven and has 14 points in 19 games on the season. That amounts to a 0.74 points-per-game pace, which is the second-highest of his career only to his 2022-23 season with the Nashville Predators, when he had 17 goals and 43 points in 51 games. He also has a defensive conscience and good awareness in all three zones. 

And there is also his versatility. The 6-foot-1, 188-pound forward is a natural center but can also play on the wing up and down the lineup, as he has seen time on Sidney Crosby's top-line wing and time as a second- and third-line center. He is also used on the top power play unit and can be deployed on the penalty kill as well. 

Per the eye test, Novak has pretty much elevated every line he's played on so far this season. He's solid on the forecheck, he hangs around the net, and he's a solid distributor, which is why he's been deployed higher in the lineup for the Penguins this season. 

In other words, there's not much Novak can't do. And that should make him pretty valuable to a contending team or a hopeful contender that needs help and depth down the middle. 

But exactly how valuable?

It's no secret that player value in today's market is a bit hard to read. Mid-20s talent is at a premium, and older veteran wingers like Rakell and Bryan Rust - ages 33 and 34, respectively - don't hold a ton of value. 

Novak fits neither of those categories. He isn't a mid-20s difference-maker, and he's also not a veteran winger with a 30-goal track record. However, his production has remained relatively consistent year-to-year throughout his career, he's still technically in his 20s, he's a center, and his current goal-scoring pace is 31, which would shatter his previous career-high of 18. 

If he can maintain even close to that goal pace, that should shoot his value up pretty significantly. Teams would already know they're getting a good, reliable Swiss army knife-type player in Novak, but if an elevated penchant for goal-scoring comes along with it, he should fetch a decent haul.

At the end of the day, much remains to be seen. Even if the Penguins do fall out of contention over the next few weeks, Novak is likely not the first player they will look to move out. He's on a good contract, he provides value to the team for the state it's currently in, and the Penguins could always use more center depth. 

Realistically, Novak is probably worth about a second-round pick as is. Karlsson will hold the most significant value on the market for the Penguins, especially if he keeps up his point-per-game pace for the rest of the season. And Rakell and Rust, based on their goal-scoring merit, should still yield a decent return even if an underwhelming one based on other factors like age, inconsistency, and injury history. 

However, don't be surprised if Novak fetches a late first-round pick or a decent prospect if he continues on his current trajectory, as depth centers - even older ones - went for a premium at last year's deadline. He is certainly valuable to the Penguins right now, but he may be even more valuable to a team trying to shore up its depth for a playoff run. 

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