Mikael Granlund is a possible buyout candidate for the Pittsburgh Penguins, but what does that really entail?

When the Pittsburgh Penguins re-signed forward Drew O'Connor, it opened up a critical 48 hour window for Kyle Dubas: a second buyout period. After standing pat earlier in the offseason and stating his desire to avoid any potential buyouts, the Penguins are in a completely different situation.

The bottom six forward group has been redesigned to Dubas and head coach Mike Sullivan's desires, they have three goaltenders making more than $1 million against the cap, and a newly formed top defensive pairing that amounts to a roster size of 24 and a cap overage of nearly $3.25 million. Put it all together, and it looks much more likely that forward Mikael Granlund will be bought out this time around. So, what does that mean exactly, and what are the pros and cons? 

Buyout Details

31-year-old Granlund has two seasons remaining on his current contract, which carries an annual average value (AAV) of $5 million. Per NHL rules, he would be entitled to 2/3 of his remaining salary owed (amounts to roughly $7.3 million) and the cost is spread out evenly over double the remaining contract length. Meaning, if the Penguins bought out his contract, they would have four more seasons, including this upcoming one, of some sort of cap hit for Granlund on the books. The first season post-buyout would provide the greatest relief, with a cap hit of $833,333, followed by three seasons of his contract counting $1.83 million against the salary cap.

Pros

$4.1 million dollars saved. 

That's the amount of cap savings the Penguins would recover this season if they bought out Granlund. With the team currently sitting at $3.25 million over the cap, the Pens are still at least a move or two away from being cap compliant. Granlund is extraneous, doesn't fit with the team's top six or bottom six, and is overpaid. While a skilled player, the Penguins don't need him and never did.

Being cap compliant is a strong enough reason alone to make a move like this. Being cap compliant and also having an additional amount of wiggle room heading into the season could be too much to pass up. The initial cap savings would give the Pens around $875-900,000 in cap space heading into training camp. 

The nay-sayers will argue that the result of a buyout is paying a player for so long can have a disastrous effect on their cap situation. However, with the Penguins likely to be in a rebuild in the third and fourth years of owing Granlund money, they may be in a prime position to absorb the sustained cap hit. If this move helps the team contend for a Stanley Cup in 2023-2024, isn't it worth the headache that is a dead cap hit?

Cons

It feels like picking the lesser of two evils, but which sounds better: two seasons at $5 million for Granlund or four more seasons at $1.83 million? Sure, Granlund is over paid for what he currently provides, but he's still a player who can at times drive play and collect points. The Pens lacked depth scoring sorely last season, and Granlund is coming off of a 41 point season split between two teams. 

If the Penguins buy Granlund out, they may be selling off too early on a player that could help the team. Back in 2011, the Penguins acquired James Neal, who put up a whopping one goal and six points in the 20 games after being acquired. He looked like a poor fit with the team. However, the next season he was able to bounce back for a 40 goal season and follow that up with two more 20 goal seasons.

This isn't to say that Granlund is a 40 goal scorer, but there is precedent for a player needing time to adjust to a new team before he starts contributing. Maybe Granlund is the bottom six scorer the team is still missing heading into the 2023-24 season, and buying him out still leaves the team a depth scorer short. 

The Penguins are also still saddled with dead cap money from a previous buyout. Former defenseman Jack Johnson was bought out in 2020, and the team still has him on their books for three more seasons counting $916,000 against the cap. If the Pens added Granlund to that list, they would have nearly $2.5 million of dead cap for the next three seasons. While that isn't the worst, for a team that is consistently cap-strapped, they cannot afford to pay that much for players not on their team. 

The Penguins should have answers from Dubas and their roster construction soon enough. We could see him make a big swing, buy out Granlund, and use the cap space to help make a bigger trade this season. He could also stick with his previous comments this summer of wanting to avoid buying out any contracts, and find a way to become cap compliant through other moves. Perhaps he believes in Granlund more than many of the Penguins faithful do. All of that will be known fully after this weekend, as Dubas has a huge decision to make entering this second buyout window. 

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