Erik Karlsson Projected to Regress According to THN Model
THN's AI analysis model, Kevin, projects that former San Jose Sharks defenseman Erik Karlsson will regress this season.
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports - Erik Karlsson Projected to Regress According to THN ModelErik Karlsson scored 101 points and won the Norris Trophy as a member of the San Jose Sharks last season. Kevin, The Hockey News' AI learning model, projects he won't repeat that success for the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Rachel Doerrie recently published Forecasting the Future: 5 NHL Players on the Regression Radar, and Karlsson sits first on her list.
"The one major change Karlsson benefitted from was the trade that sent Brent Burns to Carolina. This freed up significant offensive opportunities and allowed Karlsson to play more free," Doerrie writes. "In the process of accepting for change in situation, Kevin would've projected Karlsson for 79 points last season, not 101."
Karlsson's prolific offensive season was truly out of the blue. Yes, he was expected to improve based on opportunity, but nobody expected him to become the sixth NHL defenseman to score 100 points in a season.
Karlsson now finds himself in a similar situation that he was in when he first arrived in San Jose. Kris Letang has been the No. 1 defenseman for the Pens for a very long time.
Penguins Head Coach Mike Sullivan said he expects Letang and Karlsson to be on the top powerplay unit.
"Karlsson is projected for a range of 72-89 points this season, right around a point per game. He has the most volatile projection in the data set," Doerrie said. "Generally speaking, the point projection ranges are 6-10 points, not 17. Due to the volatile nature of Karlsson's play and the change in situation, his projection has a wide range."
Kevin says Karlsson's most likely outcome is scoring 83 points this season.
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