Was the San Jose Sharks trade for Erik Karlsson worth it?

On Sept. 13, 2018, the San Jose Sharks acquired two-time Norris Trophy-winning defenseman Erik Karlsson. 

The Sharks already had a Norris winner on their back end in Brent Burns, but this trade was meant to be "the big one" to push them over the hump for a Stanley Cup.

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There is a lot to unpack in this trade, but let's look at what pieces were given up from the San Jose Sharks' end.

Dylan DeMelo, Chris Tierney, Rudolfs Balcers

The Sharks seem to have made out okay of the roster pieces given up. DeMelo is a solid defensive defenseman who played for the Ottawa Senators for two seasons. 

Chris Tierney is a bottom-six centerman who was solid for San Jose. His value at the time of the trade was at an all-time high, as he had a career-high 40 points (17 goals, 23 assists). Tierney would beat that career-high with Ottawa the next season with 48 points.

Rudolfs Balcers was a young winger who looked like he had some potential to be a solid contributor to the Sharks' forward core. Balcers had 48 points (23 goals, 25 assists) with the San Jose Barracuda that season. Balcers seemed to be used as the B prospect in this trade. 

Balcers eventually returned to San Jose after Ottawa placed him on waivers in January 2021. Balcers was returning from a significant injury and lost out on a roster spot before the shortened COVID-19 season.

Joshua Norris

This one stings. Norris was the 19th overall selection in the 2019 NHL Draft and has become a solid player in the NHL. 

Having never played a game for the San Jose Sharks makes losing him slightly easier to swallow for fans, but in 2021-22 Norris scored 55 points in 65 games.

Norris scored 35 goals that season, and at just 24 years old, he looks primed to continue that development. Norris recently signed an eight-year $63,600,000 contract with Ottawa.

Having a top center in the NHL is hard to find, and I don't think San Jose realized how effective Norris could be in the NHL. Norris has suffered injuries the last two seasons, including only playing in eight games in 22-23.

With the likes of Tomas Hertl and Logan Couture at the time, it seemed like losing Norris would not have been the end of the world. It still isn't but given where the squad is now, Norris would be a great piece to have as a part of the core.

2020 1st Round Pick

This pick makes the whole deal look so much worse. The Sharks were expected to contend in 19-20, which didn't happen. Due to the Pandemic, the season was cut short, and the standings were sorted by winning %.

San Jose finished the season as the third-worst team in the league, and to make matters worse, the Senators finished second worst. 

The New York Rangers won the draft lottery, with the LA Kings moving up from four to two in the draft. The Sharks would have the third pick, but it was traded to Ottawa, who promptly selected budding NHL superstar Tim Stuzle.

This season Stuzle scored 90 points (39 goals, 51 assists). So now the Sharks feel like they have missed out on two young high-quality centermen that would look really good on their roster now.

The Sens would also have their own pick in the draft at five and selected budding young defenseman, Jake Sanderson.

The 18-19 Season

The Sharks traded for EK65 as an all-in push to get one last run at the Stanley Cup. It almost worked. 

Karlsson dealt with some injuries that season but had 45 points in 53 regular season games for Team Teal. That season the Sharks went on a run to the western conference final but lost to the St. Louis Blues.

Karlsson would play in 19 playoff games, scoring 16 points. One of the most controversial plays in the NHL happened in the series against the Blues. Karlsson scored the overtime-winning goal in game three to give the Sharks a 2-1 lead in the series. 

When he scored it, however, it looked like Timo Meier used his hand to get Gustav Nyquist the puck and eventually to EK65. Until the following season, there was no way to review that play for "missed stoppage," so the Sharks won.

The 2019 playoff run was full of weird refereeing moments, with the incredible comeback in round one against the Vegas Golden Knights.

The Sharks would sign EK65 to an eight-year contract with an AAV of $11.5 million. This contract also includes a full no-move clause on top of it. 

The trade itself stings with losing Norris and being unable to draft 3rd overall in 2020. But besides those two pieces, San Jose didn't give up much to get an NHL superstar.

The problems now lie within the contract, as EK65 has dealt with injuries and some inconsistent play until this past season. Karlsson's value is at an all-time high after a 101-point season and another Norris Trophy nomination.

Both Mike Grier and Karlsson seem to be on the same page regarding a trade, according to TSN's Pierre LeBrun.

Overall the trade was successful, in my opinion, but the long extension is where things go against the Sharks. They were already a little bit of an aging team. The core of Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski, and Burns were all over the age of thirty. 

With the Sharks in rebuild mode now, this move likely pushed their contention window a year or two longer, but in the end, the Sharks made a WCF the year of the trade.

So when looking solely at the trade, both teams look to have completed their goal. I should also mention that the Senators still have not made the playoffs after this trade.

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