Computer Model Projects Kraken Misery; We Detail Keys To Postseason Return

Editor's Note: Our opening night Kraken Reaction video package drops at 1 pm Pacific time today.

For Seattle Kraken players, coaches, and front office, one of the joys of 2022-23's 100-point season was proving doubters wrong.

Well, on the eve of a new season, many of those doubts remain. For one, The Hockey News analytics guru Rachel Doerrie sees the Kraken finishing 5th in the Pacific Division, and failing to reach the playoffs. (Full division projections at the bottom of this column.)

We won't know until spring if Rachel's predictive learning model, dubbed "Kevin," was on the mark. 

Me? My computer literacy peaked with the Radio Shack TRS-80 around 1980. Though I may be suffering a hometown bias, I'm somewhat more optimistic about the Kraken's chances than "Kevin" is.

Editor's observation: Rachel named her computer model Kevin because the original data visualization (at right) resembled the bird from the movie "Up."

I dunno. Looks more like the the head and tentacles of a Kraken to me.

SEATTLE KRAKEN

Last year: 46–28–8, 4th in the Pacific (lost in the 2nd round)

Projected: 5th in the Pacific (By "Kevin"), 3rd (By Me)

Keys To The Season

1. Net Positives

Goalie Philipp Grubauer extends his sparkling playoff form, and doesn't revert to his sub-.900 save percentage of the past two regular seasons. 

Grubauer led Seattle to a first round upset of the defending champion Colorado Avalanche, and within one game of besting the Dallas Stars and reaching the Western Conference Final.

2. More "Winning By Committee"

Free agent forwards Kailer Yamamoto and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare help backfill scoring lost by off-season 4th line departures. 

Yamamoto, a Spokane native, is the first Washingtonian to play for Seattle.

The Kraken thrived using a "winning by committee" formula last season; without a true superstar on the roster, they'll once again need contributions up and down the lineup.

3. Special Teams Which Are Actually Special

Last season, both the Kraken power play and penalty kill ranked in the bottom half of the league. 

A healthy Andre Burakovsky, who missed the second half of the season with a groin tear, should energize the PP and help with zone entries.

Bellemare, a proven shorthanded disrupter, calls penalty killers "destroyers."

Most Likely Scenario

Jared McCann comes close to duplicating his 40-goal season, while Calder Trophy winner Matty Beniers continues rounding into a first-line center. 

Defenders Adam Larsson and the freshly re-signed Vince Dunn (four years, $7.35 AAV) remain a shutdown top pair, and the Kraken defy expectations - again - by snagging a playoff spot.

Worst-Case Scenario

Opponents no longer take Seattle lightly.

Last season's high shooting percentage isn't repeated. Mediocre regular season goaltending and special teams are repeated.

Combined with improved performance by the LA Kings, Vancouver Canucks, and Calgary Flames, the Kraken regress out of the playoffs.

Projected Pacific Division Finish*

1. EDM Story
2. VGK Story
3. LAK Story
4. CGY Story
5. SEA
6. VAN Story
7. ANA Story
8. SJS Story

*Rankings calculated by KEVIN, a predictive learning model created by Rachel Doerrie