"Ten teams can lay a legitimate claim to the 2017 Stanley Cup, but with unmatched depth and skill, it’s Tampa Bay’s turn." Enjoy this 2016 deep dive by Ryan Kennedy.
It’s Stunning to think how close the Tampa Bay Lightning came to the Stanley Cup final last year, given how much turmoil ensnared the team. The franchise endured twin dramas during the season, first surrounding the pending unrestricted free agency of captain Steven Stamkos, then the protest of young Jonathan Drouin, followed by the suspension of Drouin and, eventually, the return of Drouin.
That’s more high drama than most NHL franchises deal with in a year, but then there were the injuries, too. Stamkos was felled by a blood clot, while once again star goalie Ben Bishop got hurt during the playoffs. But even that didn’t stop the Bolts from pushing Pittsburgh to the brink in the Eastern Conference final. With Andrei Vasilevskiy playing ably in Bishop’s place, Tampa held a 3-2 series lead but couldn’t hang on, even with Stamkos returning dramatically for Game 7.
But now the Lightning have a clean slate. Stamkos is re-signed, Drouin’s snit long forgotten. Bishop is healthy and, even if he is lost again to injury or even traded, Vasilevskiy can hold down the fort. Tampa Bay has incredible depth and a legit Norris Trophy candidate in Victor Hedman, on top of all the previously mentioned goodies. Which is why the Lightning will win the Stanley Cup in 2016-17.
There’s a certain amount of magic to consider here. Is it not kismet that two legendary Lightning players from the franchise’s first Cup – Vincent Lecavalier and Brad Richards – just retired? And is there any reason not to believe Tampa can once again walk out of the Atlantic Division, where they could face any number of Metro foes in the conference final? The odds are favorable here. Bet on the Bolts.
Out West, another one-time Cup winner will rise again in Dallas. The Stars have already proven their regular season chops of late and did make a bit of a run in the playoffs, though goaltending let them down. Dallas is still running with the oddly expensive tandem of Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi, but keep in mind: if GM Jim Nill needs to pull the trigger and find a new No. 1, this season will be uniquely shaped to do so. The pending Vegas expansion draft could see names such as Marc-Andre Fleury or Bishop hit the trade market (and what about Henrik Lundqvist if the Rangers seek a rebuild?), bringing at least some return for their teams instead of losing the stars for nothing. Imagine a Cup final where Bishop is in net for Dallas – facing Tampa Bay.
While summer brings hope for all, there will be a smaller pool of contenders overall. Washington will be dangerous again, as will whichever California team makes it out of the feeding frenzy that is the top of the Pacific Division. The Central will also be a buzzsaw, with the dynastic Blackhawks not even earning playoffs home-ice advantage.
Oh, and Pittsburgh is pretty much the exact same team that went all Speedy Gonzales on the field en route to the Cup last year. Except this time Trevor Daley won’t be hurt for the final.
And as you’ll see by the Stanley Cup odds in each preview, it wouldn’t be surprising to see any one of 10 teams win it all: Tampa (8/1), Dallas (9/1), Pittsburgh (10/1), Washington (12/1), Anaheim (13/1), Chicago (14/1), Los Angeles (15/1), San Jose (16/1), Nashville (17/1) or St. Louis (18/1).
In the following section, you will find our exhaustive preview of all 30 NHL teams via our correspondent in each market. We’re getting down and dirty as always, from depth charts and Future Watch rankings to an all-over prognosis on how your team appears for 2016-17. One change in our 2015-16 stats wrap to keep an eye on: in the age of constantly evolving advanced statistics, we’re attempting to keep pace by using a new metric for excellence this time. Score/Venue Adjusted 5-on-5 Corsi, via corsica.hockey, is our current gold standard of possession stats, taking into account not only how close a game is, but also whether the team is at home or on the road and how that factors in. The hope, as always, is to get the cleanest number by factoring in situations that could add noise to the equation.
Now it’s just time to play the games and see how everything shakes out. Will Tampa Bay hoist the Cup for the first time since 2004? Can Dallas challenge the Lightning by getting back to the final for the first since they reached in back-to-back years in 1999 and 2000? And how will a team that won’t even be on the schedule (Las Vegas) affect everyone else? It’s going to be a fun one, for sure. ■