If the Toronto Maple Leafs draft Gavin McKenna with the first overall pick on Friday, here is where he could fit in the lineup, as well as his point projection and the impact he'll have in the NHL next year.
The time has come for the Toronto Maple Leafs to make their first overall pick of the 2026 NHL draft. GM John Chayka revealed on Thursday at Jim Hiller's official introduction that a decision has been made on who they will be taking with Friday's pick, and called it a unanimous decision.
All signs point to Gavin McKenna being the Leafs' first overall pick of the 2026 draft, 10 years after the team selected Auston Matthews first overall in 2016. Any other pick besides McKenna would truly be a shocking moment.
With the probability of who Toronto will select leaning toward McKenna's favor, let's dive into what sort of impact the 18-year-old can make in the NHL.
TheHockeyNews.com's prospect experts Ryan Kennedy and Tony Ferrari see McKenna having an impact in the NHL immediately, and for a couple of reasons.
Kennedy and Ferrari have no doubts about McKenna being NHL-ready for the 2026-27 campaign. His offensive skill sets him apart from the rest of the 2026 draft class, scoring 15 goals and 51 points in 35 NCAA games with Penn State last season.
Even though they agree there is some learning to do, there's no reason that he can't be a difference-maker for the Maple Leafs.
"McKenna still needs to work on his overall game, but the offensive skill and vision is so great that he can learn on the job," Kennedy said. "Plus, he's already proven he's a quick learner based on his second half with Penn State, where he was one of the best players in the NCAA."
"I genuinely believe that McKenna (is) NHL-ready," Ferrari said. "McKenna has the advantage of being a prolific power play presence, so while he may need some time to adjust at even strength, having the power play to lean on when things get a little tough will be big for him."
Speaking of the power play, these experts understand that McKenna would be placed in a great situation with Toronto's firepower of Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares, Matthew Knies and others helping him along the way.
With that, Ferrari sees McKenna sliding right into the Leafs' top-six forward group, hanging out with the top players.
"McKenna is the kind of player you throw with your best goal scorer (Matthews) and let them cook offensively," he said. "Matthews could also cover up his defensive flaws as one of the most underrated defensive forwards in the NHL."
In terms of point projections, Kennedy and Ferrari expect McKenna to net around what the last three first overall picks have done in their rookie seasons.
Kennedy says the best case for McKenna next season would be around 65 points, while Ferrari has a range of 65 to 75 points for his rookie campaign.
In comparison, Matthew Schaefer scored 59 points in his first year, Macklin Celebrini scored 63 points, and Connor Bedard recorded 61 points.
So, with McKenna's skillset and confidence, a top-six role likely waiting for him, and star players around him to help him succeed, the expectation is for McKenna to have a solid impact in his first year as an NHLer.
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