It should come as no surprise that Nick Robertson’s pending player-elected arbitration case is the last of all cases this offseason to reach a conclusion. After all, Robertson’s tenure with the Toronto Maple Leafs has undeniably been complicated. Drafted by the Maple Leafs in the second round (53rd overall) in the 2019 NHL Draft, his six years in Toronto have been filled with more downs than ups.

The 23-year-old struggled early in his tenure with injuries. These setbacks prevented him from gaining enough NHL experience earlier in his career where he could have cleared the waiver threshold sooner. The Leafs, ever mindful of the cap, took advantage of that, particularly in the 2023-24 season when he was moved on and off the roster as the club navigated the upper limits of the roster and salary cap limitations.

Despite requesting a trade last summer and not getting it, Robertson still managed to play a career-high 69 games last season, scoring 15 goals and seven assists. While that was a good thing for his development, Robertson was scratched for all but three of Toronto’s 13 playoff games.

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However, the current arbitration process shifts the power dynamic. Robertson, for the first time in his career, has leverage. If it gets that far, he will no doubt hear arguments from Toronto about why he’s worth the lower end of what he may ultimately receive.

What’s the fair value for Robertson?

According to AFPAnalytics, Robertson is projected to make $1,556,650 AAV with a two-year term. Although it represents a healthy raise from the one-year, $875,000 contract he signed in September of 2024, there’s no doubt he will argue for far more than that. Generally, these arbitration cases lean toward a player if the comparables put forth are valid.

And there’s significant motivation for Toronto to try and settle things before the hearing begins. The last time the Leafs had an arbitration case was with goaltender Ilya Samsonov. In the end, the arbitrator awarded Samsonov a career-high $3.55 million compensation for the 2023-24 season. Despite this, the goaltender struggled badly that season and was even placed on waivers at one point. Although he eventually found his groove toward the end of the season, the goaltender admitted that arbitration case affected his confidence.

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Granted, Robertson plays a different position as a forward, but it’s a situation the Leafs can ill afford to go through again. Once a hearing starts, everyone involved seems to lose, which is why you see so many cases settled before they can even start.

If the Leafs plan on retaining Robertson once his compensation for next season is set, they’ll absolutely need a breakout year from the young forward. With high-scoring forward Mitch Marner departing for the Vegas Golden Knights, the Leafs will likely replace him by committee unless a trade presents itself between now and the start of the regular season. This would be the year and the opportunity for a player like Robertson to truly bust through offensively. A 20-plus goal season would certainly go a long way, and it would mark a significant milestone for a player who once scored 55 goals with the Peterborough Petes in 2019-20. That was the season that got Toronto to fast-track him to making his NHL debut in the 2020 playoffs.

The opportunity has never been greater for Robertson. It’s on the Leafs now to make sure they don’t mess it up. They have to try and settle things before the Aug. 3 arbitration date or move on. But actually going through the hearing process is probably not a good idea.

(Top image credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images)

Report: Nick Robertson's Arbitration Hearing Date With Maple Leafs Revealed There's a date for restricted free agent Nick Robertson's arbitration hearing with the Toronto Maple Leafs. 

Maple Leafs Forward Nick Robertson Files For Salary Arbitration, Timeline, Reasons And What’s Next? For the first time in his tenure with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Nick Robertson has leverage. The forward <a href="https://www.nhlpa.com/news/1-22899/11-players-elect-salary-arbitration">filed for salary arbitration</a> on Saturday, which allows a third party to decide his compensation for the upcoming season.

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