Mitch Marner has been great for the Toronto Maple Leafs and while his price is going up, it still makes sense to wait things out.

Mitch Marner continues to demonstrate his immense talent and value to the Toronto Maple Leafs, particularly during a stretch where team captain Auston Matthews remains sidelined with an unspecified upper-body injury. Matthews is expected to miss at least one more game—and potentially more.

Marner, an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, has skillfully avoided all extension-related speculation since the first day of training camp. Despite playing without the security of a new deal, Marner leads the club in points with 24 (six goals and 18 assists), He has been a consistent force for the team, even as they struggle to generate offense at 5-on-5, managing only six goals in their last four games. His reliability on the ice is a bright spot during a challenging stretch for the franchise.

But with talk of the salary cap perhaps exploding next year, the Leafs should avoid the temptation at locking the player to an extension before the NHL playoffs conclude, or at minimum, if they are already in the middle of deep successful run,

Over the weekend, Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman reported that the NHL and NHLPA are considering increasing the salary cap beyond the 5 percent  annual growth outlined in the current memorandum of understanding agreed to in 2020. While the 2023-24 cap rose by 5.37 percent to $88 million thanks to both sides agreed to round the projected number up, Friedman suggests the cap could rise to somewhere between $95 and $97 million next season as both sides work to get payrolls to where they should be in post-COVID world where the game is thriving. 

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This significant jump could reshape negotiations for Marner’s next contract.

With the cap poised for such a substantial increase, Marner's representatives could push for a higher salary using percentage-of-cap metrics. Leon Draisaitl’s recent $14 million AAV extension provides a benchmark. While Marner’s playoff production hasn’t matched Draisaitl’s, a $95 million cap could position Marner to command an AAV around $12.7 million if he retains a similar 13.365% cap hit as his previous six-year, $10.893 million AAV deal, signed in 2019 when the cap was $81.5 million.

Remember, that was for six seasons. If Marner seeks an eight-year term, his ask could climb even higher. This raises the question: could Marner surpass Matthews' $13.25 million AAV? It’s possible, depending on term length and how much leverage Marner’s camp has in negotiations.

Learning from the William Nylander Saga

The Leafs must avoid repeating the protracted negotiations that occurred with William Nylander, who signed his most recent extension—a eight-year deal worth $92 million contract. He was setting the world on fire, leading the team in points with  54 points in 37 games. He went on to record 44 more points in the remaining 45 games that season. Of course, the pace slowed from 1.459 points per game before signing to 0,978 per game down the stretch. It's not that Nylander isn't worth the money, but perhaps the Leafs may have been in a better position to negotiate after the Leafs fell to the Bruins in seven games.

The Leafs cannot afford to make a similar mistake with Marner, who like the rest of the core, come with questions about their playoffs success, or lack thereof. 

Marner’s postseason production remains a critical question mark. His ability to deliver in key moments has often been overshadowed by disappointing playoff exits. While there’s a risk of Marner walking away in free agency, waiting to evaluate his playoff performance could justify a higher price tag—if he proves he can lead the team deep into the playoffs. A final-four appearance or better would make any potential overpayment easier to swallow.

The Road Ahead

Marner holds the cards in these negotiations, thanks to his no-move clause. Leafs GM Brad Treliving, who inherited this situation when he joined the team in June 2023, faces the delicate task of balancing the team’s long-term financial health with the immediate need to retain a core player. With the salary cap set to rise and Marner proving his worth, the Leafs must carefully navigate this negotiation and the playoffs success should be the ultimate arbiter of the how this goes.