With Matt Murray Still on the Books, What do the Maple Leafs do in Goal Next Season?
The big bet on Matt Murray failed, but Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll emerged as solid options for next year. But how much will the Maple Leafs commit to Samsonov and how do they get out of Murray's $4.875 salary-cap hit?
What a difference a year makes.
When the Toronto Maple Leafs concluded the 2021-22 season, they began the process of wiping the slate clean of their goaltending tandem and the stability at the position never looked so bleak.
The Leafs moved on from Jack Campbell, who signed a five-year, $25 million contract with the Edmonton Oilers. The oft-injured Petr Mrazek and the two years remaining on his contract that carried a $3.4 million salary-cap hit were shipped to the Chicago Blackhawks.
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Toronto overhauled the position that summer. They moved on from previous goaltending coach Steve Briere and brought in former NHL goaltender Curtis Sandford to fill the spot. The club acquired two-time Stanley Cup champion Matt Murray from the Ottawa Senators, who retained 25 percent of the goaltender's $6.25 million cap hit for two seasons. A couple of days later, Toronto signed Ilya Samsonov to a one-year, $1.8 million contract, which seemed like an absolute gift from the Washington Capitals in hindsight.
Signing for just a single year in an effort to prove himself, Samsonov posted a 27-10-5 record with a career-high save percentage of .919. He helped the club win a playoff round for the very first time in 19 years by defeating the Tampa Bay Lightning in six games.
Getting Samsonov locked down to a new contract should become Toronto's top priority in goal.
What a contract for Samsonov would look like?
After a breakout season, the Russian goaltender is going to want a substantial raise. A restricted free agent going into this summer, the Toronto Maple Leafs control the goaltender's playing rights.
Does that mean Samsonov is guaranteed to stay with the Maple Leafs this summer? No. In fact, Samsonov went through this last year when his former club Capitals elected not to tender the goaltender a qualifying offer in order to retain his rights. I don't get the sense that will happen this year as the club was generally pleased with the 26-year-old's performance this season, especially after the bet on Murray failed.
Samsonov expressed his desire to remain with the Leafs, Despite his playful hate for the city's traffic situation.
“I want to stay here which is not a surprise for everybody," he said. "We’ll see, it’s not my work anymore, it’s my agent.”
If the Leafs do retain Samsonov, they have to be prepared to potentially digest a salary cap hit of $4,538,958. That is the walk-away number for teams should an arbitration award exceed that value. Samsonov has arbitration rights so it would make sense for the player and his agent to file if a deal could not be reached and Toronto tenders a qualifying offer. The walk-away number is also $336,042 less than the $4.875 million that Murray will carry on Toronto's books for next season.
Samsonov's save percentage had him ranked in a tie for 6th in the NHL last season. He was tied with Dallas Stars goalie Jake Oettinger, who appeared in 20 more games than Samsonov. Could Oettinger's three-year, $12 million contract provide some form of framework for Toronto?
The big difference between those two goalies is Oettinger will still be an RFA when his contract expires at the end of the 2024-25 season.
Any deal beyond one year will add a premium in AAV due to Samsonov's status as a UFA after his next contract. It'll be tricky.
Prediction: Samsonov signs for two years at between $4.5 - $5 million per season.
Joseph Woll effect
When Samsonov went down with a neck injury in Game 3 against the Florida Panthers, Joseph Woll stepped in and performed well in both of his starts. He is Toronto's goaltender of the future. There is no doubt that Woll will be one of two goaltenders for Toronto next season, and his $766,667 salary-cap hit for each of the next two seasons is a big get by Toronto's management. If Samsonov were to sign for two seasons, the Leafs could get a sense for Woll to see if he is the real deal in goal and make a decision beyond the 2024-25 season.
Moving on from Murray
Matt Murray was a healthy option for the Toronto Maple Leafs during the second round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs. But when Samsonov went down, it was Woll who got the nod in goal and not Murray, despite the goaltender's playoff resume.
Murray called the decision "tough" when pressed by reporters during his end-of-season media availability. Because he is healthy, this isn't a situation where Murray can be dumped onto long-term injured reserve for cap relief. Making matters worse, the goaltender's contract is backloaded. He will earn $8 million in salary (Senators are covering $2 million of that). Any trade will see a team take on Murray's $4.875 million cap hit, but be spending $6 million. So teams looking to reach the salary-cap floor are out.
Unless of course a massive sweetener is involved in any deal involving Murray. Toronto owns the 28th overall pick in the 2023 NHL Draft and perhaps that might need to be in a package to move Murray.
Perhaps the best course of action is to see Murray bought out.
The NHL salary cap is expected to go up by only $1 million in 2023-24. A massive increase to that number is expected in 2024-25 when the NHLPA's pandemic-related debt to owners is fully paid off.
A buyout of the final year of Murray's contract would only carry a cap charge of $687,500 in 2023-24, which frees up $4,187,500 in cap room for next season. Murray's cap charge in 2024-25 shoots up to $2 million, but the expected increase to the cap could make that digestible.
Is there a team outside of the Leafs that would be interested in Murray? I can't see it after a year in which the goaltender was injured three times.
Prediction: Leafs buy out Matt Murray.
Outside help?
If the Leafs and Samsonov end up parting ways could they go after a goaltender on the free-agent market? I suppose it is possible, but any goaltender of quality is sure to command an AAV near what Samsonov will want. And Samsonov is a goalie they know who performed well this season.
Semyon Varlamov is a free agent. So is Cam Talbot. Neither of those choices looks better than Samsonov right now.
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