Canucks coach believes big winger can score 20 goals in a season
Canucks coach believes big winger can score 20 goals in a season
There is no question Rick Tocchet has taken a shine to Dakota Joshua since becoming head coach of the Vancouver Canucks. Tocchet's opinion of the powerful winger was surely shaped in his coaching debut on January 24th when Joshua not only scored, but also dropped the gloves in a 5-2 win over the Chicago Blackhawks. Since then, the 26-year-old Dearborn, MI native has continued to make an impact in a third line role with Nils Aman and, of late, Conor Garland.
Under Tocchet, Joshua has produced better numbers than he did under Bruce Boudreau and he's also seen a spike in ice time by more than two minutes per game. Some of that added usage has come on the penalty kill where Joshua has become one of the top four forwards deployed by the coaching staff while the Canucks are a man short.
Through 73 games, Joshua has scored 11 goals and added 10 assists. He has 5+7=12 in 30 games under Tocchet after recording 6+3=9 in 43 games before the coaching change.
"The last six weeks he’s really improved," Tocchet says of Joshua. "And I’ll be honest with you, there’s another level. I know I keep harping about summer, but there is another level for him. If he really does the right things."
Prior to the mid-season coaching change, the Canucks were outscored by a dozen at even-strength with Joshua on the ice. Under Tocchet, the Canucks have broken even with Joshua taking shifts at evens. Some of that is a result of improved goaltending with the return of Thatcher Demko, but much of it can be attributed to the growth and development of Joshua and his lineman Aman. Over the past 30 games, the Canucks have controlled 51% of the scoring chances and 50.8% of the expected goals with Joshua on the ice.
As for that next level Tocchet believes Dakota Joshua can get to, the coach has lofty expectations.
"I don’t want to put pressure on him, but he can score 20 goals in this league and can be a really good penalty killer for us," Tocchet says.
As of this writing, 117 players the National Hockey League this season have reached the 20-goal mark. Columbus rookie Kirill Marchenko has done it with the fewest shots on goal (115). And of those in this season's 20-goal club, Seattle's Daniel Sprong averages the least ice time per game (11:11) and is the only player in the cohort under 14-minutes. And each and every one of the 117 players in the 20-goal club has scored at least twice on the power play. This is where the math doesn't seem to add up for Dakota Joshua to reach the 20-goal threshold. He simply doesn't play enough or shoot enough to put himself in that kind of company. While Joshua has had a terrific first full season in the NHL by almost any measure, he averages 11:25 of ice time per game (12:52 under Tocchet) and has netted his 11 goals on 67 shots (and 28 shots in 30 games under the new coach). Only one of those goals has come with the man-advantage.
So even though the coach may see Joshua with the potential to reach 20-goals in a season, it feels like a long shot based on his usage and his ability to create shots for himself. Now, it's possible that Joshua will see his role increase next season. He has spent recent games playing alongside Elias Pettersson and if that were to continue next season it would certainly change both the conversation and the trajectory of Joshua's production.
Still there would be nothing wrong with Dakota Joshua scoring 12-15 goals per season in a bottom six role while continuing to excel on an improving penalty kill and rounding out the physical side of his game. But 20-goals is likely asking a little too much -- no matter how fond the coach is of the player.