We set the line on 10 predictions for the coming season, you decide: Over or Under?
Inside a month now from the start of Vancouver Canucks training camp in Victoria and hockey minds are feverishly looking to the season ahead. That includes in Vancouver where the Canucks are set to begin a third straight season with a third new head coach. Hopefully -- for everyone involved -- the coaching carousel will stop spinning and Rick Tocchet will have the chance to further cement the systems and strategies he put in place over the final 36 games last season.
With the help of a healthy Thatcher Demko down the stretch, Tocchet's Canucks showed they were capable of playing with more structure defensively while individuals were still able to thrive at the other end of the ice. The organization has addressed defensive issues over the off-season and the recent signing of Pius Suter should give the hockey club more depth and scoring punch up front.
The Canucks start playing for keeps on October 11th, so we won't get tangible answers on what this team will look like on the ice for seven weeks still. That gives up plenty of time to look at 10 scenarios for the upcoming season. We'll set the line for each and offer up our prediction. Then it's your turn to decide: OVER or UNDER.
1) Thatcher Demko starts: 57.5
If Demko starts 57 games, it means the Canucks will require 25 starts from someone other than their main man between the pipes. That could very well be a collective back-up effort for the hockey club this season. It was clear by his usage after his return from injury last season that Demko will be leaned on by the Canucks. But how much is too much when it comes to wear and tear for a goalie that has suffered significant injuries in each of the past two seasons? I think Demko is going to play a lot early to help the Canucks get off to a much better start than in the past three seasons. But I also want to believe the Canucks will monitor his workload closely so that their number one netminder has something left in the tank for the stretch run -- and possibly the playoffs. I'm taking the under.
2) Elias Pettersson points: 97.5
It's not as simple to say that just because Pettersson reached the century mark last year he's a guarantee to get back there again. This is the NHL. It's a difficult league to star in. Then again, Canucks fans know how motivated Pettersson is and it's looking more and more like he will start into this season without a contract extension. That should serve as even more motivation. However, the Canucks are likely to play fewer 6-5 type games under Rick Tocchet than they did under Bruce Boudreau and that could cut into Pettersson's point total. There as questions about the Canucks power play without Bo Horvat and without Jason King, the coach that oversaw the Canucks work with the man-advantage. It's also unclear who Pettersson will have as linemates. Can Andrei Kuzmenko produce at the level he did last season? That could certainly impact Pettersson's point total. Through it all, I think Pettersson's had a taste of life in the 100 point club and will want more to bolster his demands for a massive payday. I'm taking the over.
3) Canucks penalty kill: 78.5%
For context, the Canucks had the worst penalty killing in the league at 71.8% last season. Had they been at 78.5% for the year, they would have been 18th. Still not great, but in the middle-third of the league and not far from middle of the pack. In 36 games under Rick Tocchet (and Adam Foote), the Canucks killed penalties at 78.4% which was 21st in the the league over that span. Now consider a healthy Demko and the additions of free agents Ian Cole, Carson Soucy, Teddy Blueger and Pius Suter along with newcomer Filip Hronek. The Canucks penalty kill could surprise this season. No need to make any bold proclamation about where it will rank league-wide, but just looking at the number here, I'm taking the over.
4) Vasily Podkolzin goals: 14.5
This feels like a big year for the young Russian. The 10th pick in the 2019 NHL Draft scored 14 goals in 79 games as a rookie two seasons ago and it looked like he had announced his arrival in the National Hockey League. Then last year happened and Podkolzin managed just four goals and played only 39 NHL games last season. Considering two brief stints in the American Hockey League, Podkolzin has played for five different head coaches in his limited time in the Canucks organization. He needs to find some stability and use his size and strength to solidify a spot in the line-up on a nightly basis. So much of his output will depend on his usage and his linemates and whether he can become a Rick Tocchet favourite. I'm going to take the over. Not by much. But I'm taking the over here.
5) Conor Garland games played with Canucks: 41.5
The subject of trade rumblings basically since he arrived in town, Garland looks like he'll be on the roster to start the new season. At 41.5 games, we're asking whether you think he'll still be a Canuck past the midway mark of the season. Of course, injury could factor into the conversation on this one, too. Unless the Canucks move a winger ahead of him, Garland is likely to start on the third line where he has spent much of his time in his two seasons in Vancouver. The good news for Garland is that the pieces exist to make this the best third line he's been a part of in his two seasons with the Canucks. There haven't been any takers for his services yet and with three years remaining on his contract, I'm not sure anything changes there in the early stages of the schedule. So I'm hammering the over and banking on Garland being here into the new year (and quite possibly beyond that).
6) Vancouver Canucks victories: 42.5
Optimism abounds at this time of year and the Canucks clearly think they have made substantial improvements to key areas of their game over the off-season. Remember, though, that this a team that went 38-37-7 last season and finished with 83 points. So there was plenty of heavy lifting required. They should be better defensively and on the penalty kill. There are still questions about the roster they have for the style Rick Tocchet wants his team to play. But with a healthy Thatcher Demko, the idea of picking up six additional wins certainly feels like a possibility, if not a probability. If Demko wins 35 games, can the Canucks get another 10-12 wins from the back-up position to chase a wild card berth? I'm still not convinced this is a playoff team, but I can certainly see a path to make a post-season push. Therefore, I'm taking the over on 42.5 victories.
7) Number of goalies to make an NHL start for Canucks this season: 3.5
Last year, the Canucks used four different starters. They're hoping they won't need that many this time around. And the organization appears to be positioned better in the event of any kind of injury to Thatcher Demko. While Spencer Martin may very well start the season as the NHL back-up, the emergence of Arturs Silovs gives the Canucks options. Should Demko go down for any length of time, it feels like this season Silovs would be given the opportunity to carry the load in goal. It may be asking a lot of him, but it seems like he has earned the chance to get a run of games as an NHL starter after making his big league debut last season and then exploding onto the global stage as the Most Valuable Player at the World Championships. If the number winds up over 3.5 starters, things have likely gone sideways yet again for the Canucks, so I'm going to take the under.
8) Tyler Myers will play a game for Canucks in 2024: Yes or No
Veering from the script a little here, this is simply a yes or no question. Will Tyler Myers still be a Canuck into the new year? Everyone knows about the signing bonus due next month and how that could make him attractive to a team trying to reach the NHL's salary cap floor. But it's important to remember Myers has limited trade protection which could make it tougher to send him to a team simply looking for cap help. Maybe he's more of a trade deadline chip as a big, mobile, right-shot veteran blueliner. Or maybe he has the kind of season here that sees him play out his contract on a Canucks team that is heading for the playoffs. Oh, the options. All of them in play at this point. I'm saying if a move comes, it comes closer to the trade deadline and as such I'm voting Yes and saying Myers will play at least one game for the Canucks in 2024.
9) Quinn Hughes assists: 71.5
Quinn Hughes has done so many special things in his short time with the Vancouver Canucks. But reaching the 70 assist mark is not one of them. Although he came as close as possible last season with 69 helpers in his career-best 76-point season. Only four players in the league had more assists than Hughes last season -- Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, Erik Karlsson and Leon Draisaitl. That's pretty good company to keep. But consider this, since Hughes was born (1999), only two NHL defenseman have cracked the 70 assist mark. Karlsson had 76 last season and Roman Josi collected 73 two years ago. So it's a remarkably rare feat. I think we've all learned not to bet against Hughes when it comes to his offensive exploits. I certainly expect him to add to his goal total this season and I'm not ruling out 70 assists. But I'm going to take the under on 71.5.
10) Number of 40-goal scorers on the Canucks: 1.5
The team had no 40-goal scorers last season, but it did have a pair of players at 39. Elias Pettersson could easily reach the 40-goal mark. Of his 39 markers last season, just six came on the power play. That's an area he could clearly bump his total. The jury is out on Andrei Kuzmenko getting back to the level of productivity he showed in his first NHL season. Many think the percentages will be next to impossible to replicate. And it's hard to ignore the numbers. That said, so many of his goals came from in and around the blue paint and I think he can certainly collect many of those goals again in his second season. Even if Kuzmenko takes a step back, he shouldn't drop too far based on the fact he's likely to line-up alongside Pettersson and maintain his spot on the team's top power play unit. I can see EP40 cracking 40 and Kuzmenko following up with 35. So I'll take the under here.