It’s no secret that the Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes have developed a rivalry over the years. Look no further than the final two games these two played against each other last month near the end of the regular season. Both games were high-energy, high-intensity hockey. And there’s no reason to believe this won’t carry into this playoff series.
Surprisingly, these two teams have only faced off in the playoffs once before, when Carolina completed a first-round knock out of defending Stanley Cup-champion Washington in seven games back in 2019. In that game, former Capital Justin Williams (known as Mr. Game 7 for his repeated heroics in such playoff games) assisted on a tip-in in the second OT period to seal the win for Carolina. It was a hard-fought and fun series between the two teams.
Both teams enter this series coming off round one victories in five games. Carolina faced off against a battered New Jersey Devils team who put up a valiant effort but ultimately could not overcome a Hurricanes team that is arguably superior in most respects.
Washington’s win against Montreal wasn’t unexpected for most people. Even a Canadiens apologist like me knew that Montreal really had little chance of defeating the powerhouse Capitals. The Habs will be a good team in years to come, and they’re certainly fun to watch, if nothing else. But the Caps were able to exploit their weaknesses fairly easily and make short work of them.
Carolina is obviously a vastly different team in nearly every way. They are a deeper, more experienced roster that is well-coached and plays a solid game. They also have a sound special teams strategy. Throughout the regular season, both teams played solid hockey that led to them splitting the four games played each other. The two most recent games from April saw the Capitals lose 5-1 on April 2 and then win 5-4 in a shootout on April 10.
The April 2 game also contained the now infamous fight between Jalen Chatfield and Connor McMichael, in which Chatfield slammed McMichael to the ice in a dangerous way that could’ve caused a serious head injury (thankfully McMichael was not injured). Washington’s Brandon Duhaime avenged his teammate in the next game in a tilt with Chatfield. I expect this bad-blood will carry over into this series, especially considering the physical game both teams play.
This is a series that will be a much tougher fight for both teams. Let’s look deeper at what I think will be the keys to a Capitals’ series win.
Fast and Furious
Carolina plays a fast-paced game and have what has been described as a “relentless” forecheck. They also throw everything they can at the opposing goalie; in all four games during the regular season, Carolina dominated the Corsi-for stats against the Capitals and generated more scoring chances. One interesting note however is that despite generating far more shot attempts and scoring chances than Washington, the Capitals actually managed more high-danger scoring chances in two of the four games, although this stat is fairly close. But it will mean that Washington’s defense will need to be ready for shot blocks and clearing the puck and Canes’ players out of the front of the net. Keeping the net-front clear will keep the volume of high-danger chances to a minimum and allow Logan Thompson to have a clear view of the puck.
If you enjoyed the physical nature of the Montreal series, I expect you’ll be delighted with round two. The Capitals’ physicality was an obvious key to their success in shutting Montreal down in round one; it’s an easy argument that Tom Wilson’s hit on Alexandre Carrier in game four was a resounding turning point in that series that took the life out of Montreal. I expect that physicality will return for the matchup with the Hurricanes.
Play patient hockey
Fun fact: Carolina also has allowed the fewest shots on average per game through the regular season. With a solid defense corps like Jaccob Slavin, Shayne Gostisbehere, Jalen Chatfield and veteran Brent Burns (as well as former Cap Dmitry Orlov), so it’s easy to see why.
The Capitals are more effective goal-scorers however. Playing patient in the offensive zone, cycling the puck well, and waiting for quality chances to become available will be key here.
This patience also extends to special teams, as Carolina had a fairly effective power play in round one (although their 25th ranked regular season power play could certainly be described as “meh”). Washington’s power play has converted on 23.1 percent of chances in the postseason, compared to 31.6 percent for Carolina. But it’s also the penalty kill that Washington should be worried about, as Carolina has maintained one of the best PK units in the league all season (they’ve killed every penalty so far this postseason), and scored 10 shorthanded goals in the regular season.
The Capitals’ powerplay cannot afford to be disorganized or make many mistakes, or they risk the Hurricanes making them pay for it on the scoreboard.
The goalie factor
Logan Thompson has looked fantastic for the most part in the five games he’s started for the Caps. Through the five game set with Montreal, he came out with a .923 save percentage, currently second-best in the playoffs. He is however sitting right behind Hurricanes’ goalie Frederik Andersen, who brings a .936 save percentage to the table. Had it not been for the five goals Thompson allowed in game three against Montreal, he could possibly be sitting higher, but it’s fair to say that both goalies are playing quite well so far this postseason.
The real question surrounding both goalies is their health. Andersen suffered an injury in game four against New Jersey, and did not play in game five. He is likely to play in Tuesday’s game, but I’m sure that injury is still nagging. Andersen also has an unfortunate track record of being injury-prone throughout his career.
Thompson of course also suffered his own injuries, as he was battered up a bit in game three and exited the game after a collision with Dylan Strome. Thompson did return for game four, and played well. But there is clearly still a bit of a nagging issue, a noticeable difference in how he played in games four and five. Not to mention the fact that his play in game one of the series came after being sidelined since April 2 with an injury sustained against these very same Carolina Hurricanes.
So, who wins?
If you read my preview for the Montreal series, you’ll understand why I don’t make predictions. That series was difficult enough to predict, and this series is even harder.
These are two very evenly matched teams in so many areas. Both play different systems, but match up well with each other.
The odds heavily favor Carolina in this one, although I can’t really figure out why. Taking out the standings of the regular season, both these teams played each other well through their regular season matchups.
I will say this: I predict this series will go seven games and potentially be one of the better series we’ll see in this entire postseason.