What's behind Alex Ovechkin's goal-scoring drop?

On Tuesday, Alex Ovechkin makes his final regular-season stop in Tampa, the third date on his final tour around the NHL.

Of course, this year, Ovechkin's offensive production has been nothing near what we have seen in the past, as the Capitals near the quarter point of the season the NHL's all-time leading goal-scorer is currently on pace for 5 goals - when it wasn't too long ago you needed to add a zero behind that number.

It's been a month since Ovechkin has lit the lamp, scoring on October 11 against the Seattle Kraken, Washington's 5th game of the year. Now, the Capitals are 17 games deep into the year heading into Saturday's game against New Jersey and that is still his only marker of the campaign.

So, what is really going on with Ovechkin so far this season?

Well, the first and most obvious answer is age. Ovechkin turned 41 on the first day of training camp, and certainly doesn't pass the eye test anymore watching him play. The Russian star has always played a physical game, and he still won't pass up the chance to make a hit on an opponent.

But clearly, his skating has slowed and is not nearly as dynamic as he was even a couple of years ago, and, at times, looks like he is a 40-something in a league with players half his age. He no longer possesses the flash and dash he used to, now more lumbering around the ice and looking to conserve energy for shorter runs.

While this is nothing new in the past few years, he has been able to keep his numbers up thanks to his shot. While his skating has declined, his knuckling shot and one-timers still flustered goaltenders, and while his on-ice ability isn't much different from last year, there is a big drop from the 32 goals he had last year.

And one of the biggest reasons in that big drop is that his shot totals have dropped dramatically this season. 

So far, Ovechkin has 28 shots in 17 games, just around 1.65 per contest this season. Just last season, he was averaging nearly 3 a game, meaning at last year's shooting percentage, with this year's shot totals he would have 18 goals - with the two extra games the NHL added this season helping push that over that mark.

His shot was the great equalizer to his declining speed and skating, as while he couldn't always motor around a defender any more he could certainly find a way to beat the goaltender.

Part of the reason for the declining shots comes from his the dwindling ice time. Ovechkin is averaging 13:46 in ice time per game, down over 3 minutes from last year. Less time on ice means less shots, and with his role on the power play declining, those numbers are going down.

Ovechkin regularly played the full 2 minutes on the point during the power play in recent years, now he usually only plays half that, with some instances him sitting out power plays altogether.

The Capitals don't even really employ Ovechkin in his office with the extra-man anymore, as he tends to be more roaming in the offensive zone on a power play and parking next to the post these days than hanging around in the circle and waiting for the pass. 

Ovechkin's lone goal this season came just feet from the top of the crease, and his near-misses this year have almost all been in tight. The Capitals aren't using Ovechkin as they used to, and the transition isn't leading to production.

The great irony is perhaps the biggest reason for the drop in production is the whole reason he is still in the NHL this season - the increased depth on offense.

While undergoing their mini-rebuild, the Capitals counted on Ovechkin for goals. Two years ago when he scored 44 goals in 65 games, his teammates constantly fed him as he was chasing Wayne Gretzky and the team was chasing a playoff spot. 

Even last year, the Capitals relied on him to chip in goals to help out despite missing the playoffs, and with the loss of some key forwards, he was needed to produce.

This year, with the addition of Alex Tuch, Jordan Kyrou and Boone Jenner, who have chipped in 22 goals combined so far this year, there hasn't been the need for Ovechkin to get a full 2 minutes on the power play, or get the extra ice time when down a goal or two, as there have been others to pick up the slack.

Ovechkin wanted an improved roster in order to come back for what will be his final NHL season, and he got it. But of course, it comes at the expense of his own ice time - particularly on the power play.

It would be remiss to also note that Ovechkin has always been a streaky goal scorer. While he has been declared obsolete numerous times during his career, dating back to the Dale Hunter-era of 2013, he has come back to score goals in bunches. It's not like he hasn't had some good opportunities this season to light the lamp, he's just been a bit off so far.

And, Ovechkin has still chipped in some assists this season, so while the goals have dried up his contribution hasn't either. 

With his next assist, Ovechkin will replace longtime linemate Nicklas Backstrom as the franchise's all-time assist leader, giving him the lead in almost every important offensive stat in the team's 52-year-history. While he has never been known as an assist guy, he also is passing one of the franchise's best set of hands. 

Unlike the chase of Gretzky's goal mark two years ago where the team was wrapped up in the unknown of when he would reach that milestone, this year, it's a finite tour of duty of farewells. Barring an injury, the team knows when the regular-season finale is coming in each stop. 

The farewells will really begin to kick in next week with the stop in Tampa, as a Western road trip in December will begin what will be a long cavalcade of goodbyes across North America. During the stretch run and after the All-Star Game, the attention will only begin to increase, and while not quite the attention of the goal chase, it still will be a lot of extra media around as the team will wind down the regular season and look to return to a playoff spot.

Really, Ovechkin's decline in production this year is due to a bunch of different factors that are related to one another, and while it seems like reaching Goal No. 950 seems a stretch at this point, certainly him finishing in single digits seems to be a bit off too.

But his declining numbers this year aren't really just from one cause, but a group of related causes with his age and the team's improved offensive depth reducing his role with the club.