It’s finally time, folks. What is, in my humble opinion, the best time of the hockey year: the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The Washington Capitals, after limping into the postseason last year only to get swept out by the Rangers, decided to make it much easier on their fans this year and clinched their playoff spot weeks ago, taking the first-place spot in the Metro Division and Eastern Conference. They will face off against the Montreal Canadiens for the first time since 2010, where a young Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom and John Carlson lost a seven-game upset to the Habs.
The Canadiens’ season is a strong contrast to the Caps’. Where the Capitals have sat in first place for most of the season, Montreal was dead-last as recently as December 16th. The Canadiens clawing their way into a playoff spot came as a shock to many onlookers, as the Habs are still very much a team in the midst of a rebuild. On paper, this is a series that Washington has virtually every advantage, with better scoring depth, a better defense, better special teams, and better goaltending.
And yet, it’s tough to look at how the last few months (especially post-Four Nations break) have transpired and believe that it will be a walk in the park for the Capitals. And as I have a soft spot for the Canadiens, I have been watching them more closely than other teams down the stretch. So let's take a deeper look at what I believe will be the keys to success for Washington in this series.
Utilizing the offensive depth that has carried them through this season
If you take a look at the scoring depth for each team, it’s clear (again, on paper) that Washington has an edge here. The Capitals’ offense has come from all parts of the lineup, including from the defense. While Montreal has benefitted from this as well to some extent, a large portion of their scoring has come from the top line of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky. The Capitals will benefit greatly from shutting down the Suzuki line first and foremost to stifle some of that offensive production.
This also means they cannot rely on only their own top-line for points either.
Squash the momentum
As I noted above, Montreal is riding a wave of momentum into this playoff series that is likely only bested by St. Louis. Sporting a 7-1-2 record in their final 10 games of the season and losing only five times in regulation since the Four Nations tournament, it’s safe to say the Habs are surging at just the right time. Conversely, the Capitals are 4-6 in the final 10 games they played, including a couple of ugly losses to Columbus, the Islanders, and Carolina (we won’t count the final game against Pittsburgh).
Now you could easily dismiss those final games as being meaningless for Washington, as they had long-since clinched a playoff spot, but considering that much of the normal roster played in these games, I don’t think I’d write them off. Also, momentum down the stretch is important; the playoffs are a whole different beast, but sputtering down the stretch can certainly kill your momentum heading into the postseason. The Capitals also cannot discount the fact that Montreal has essentially been playing playoff hockey- essentially playing for their playoff lives- for about half the season. The question is, has that magic worn off for Montreal by now?
I believe Washington is the superior team here, but upsets happen just about every year. Montreal is a fast team with several offensive weapons. I expect the Habs will come out fast and try to steal the momentum quickly in each game. Stifling that speed and keeping the Canadiens off the board early is going to be huge for Washington. The Capitals relied on third-period comebacks a bit too much this season, and it wouldn’t be wise to rely on that now when the games matter most.
Experience matters
Montreal is bringing a very young team into the postseason- David Savard (who is retiring at the end of the playoffs) is the oldest player at 34. Some on the Montreal roster have seen playoff experience, with Suzuki, Joel Armia, Josh Anderson and Brendan Gallagher playing in that 2021 Cinderella-run to the Stanley Cup Final (Jake Evans would have played, had he not been injured by a brutal Mark Scheifele hit in the second round). Others like Kirby Dach, Patrik Laine, Mike Matheson and David Savard saw some playoff time with other teams. But there are also numerous inexperienced players on this Habs’ roster, and Captain Nick Suzuki will certainly be a major leadership factor to hold his group together.
The Capitals have playoff experience from their core group of Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson, John Carlson, and Lars Eller, all of whom were part of the 2018 Stanley Cup-winning team. Other players have been part of recent Capitals’ trips to the postseason, and first-season players Pierre-Luc Dubois, Matt Roy, and Logan Thompson bring experience from other teams as well.
Fun fact: Pierre-Luc Dubois was part of that 2019 Columbus Blue Jackets team that pulled off the shocking sweep of the powerhouse Tampa Bay Lightning.
Again, the playoffs are a whole new beast. It is a grind that wears players down physically and mentally, and some teams wear down much quicker than others. Generally, the more experienced a team is in the playoff grind, the better it can hold up. Especially when you factor in some brand-new players…
The rookie factor
At the end of the college season, the Capitals brought in Ryan Leonard to get some game experience, which has been mostly a net-positive for the Capitals. While he only managed one goal in nine games, he still played a role in the Caps’ lineup. Where he falls in the lineup starting on Monday remains to be seen, but this will be good experience for him.
On the Montreal side, you may have noticed I have omitted one name up until now.
Ivan Demidov.
Demidov made his debut against the Blackhawks on April 14, and made an immediate impact, getting an assist on the Habs’ first goal of the game and then scoring the second goal. All of this in the first period, mind you. Even in the Canadiens’ 4-2 win against the Hurricanes, he showed a level of poise on the puck that is rarely seen in a 19-year-old and managed several high-quality scoring chances. He is also a very good skater.
Even coach Spencer Carbery said Sunday that assessing Demidov is hard because of the limited film on him, but what he does know, is that the kid is oozing talent.
"I think the two games, watched him live, two things that I saw in watching him. One is, he's one of those players that the moment -- you can tell he's one of those guys that thrives, the bigger the stage, the more attention — he wasn't shying away from a thing in those games. Wanted the ball — I say the ball because I equate it to basketball — wanted the ball, wanted the last shot, wanted to be out there, wanted to be the guy on the power play on the flank shooting it. Because what happens is a lot of young players come into the league, you look around, 'Nick Suzuki, okay. Cole Caufield, he's done a lot in this league.' And you defer, right? Because, of course. (Demidov?) Nuh uh. 'I can be the guy that's going to make the play, that's going to shoot it in the back of the net. I know those guys are great, I have a ton of respect for them, but —.' That's a mindset and a mentality of those really elite athletes, elite players that want or that have that confidence. The other thing that I noticed is his skating and his ability to protect pucks and get the edge."-
The real question is, how much will Demidov factor into this series? The buzz around this kid is huge to say the least, and he has already shown why to some extent.
So, who wins this one?
Ah, I hate making predictions. Mostly because I’m usually wrong.
As I mentioned, I do have a soft spot for Montreal, and they have been fun to watch this season. They have also played some great (if haphazard) hockey down the stretch.
Despite the Capitals’ injury woes (Protas, Fehervary, and Thompson) and struggles toward the end of the season, I think that Washington is the better team and should take this series. I just don’t expect Montreal to go down without quite the fight.
Especially if Arber Xhekaj ends up in the lineup.