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    Kevin Bartechko
    Jan 31, 2025, 15:30

    The Capitals' late surge wasn't enough to overcome a hungry Senators team.

    The first point I want to make is, thank goodness this game wasn't another late one; I was tired of staying up late. However, the Washington Capitals might have been fooled by the earlier start time, as they didn't really seem to turn on the gas until the third period, and even then, it wasn't enough to overcome the surging Ottawa Senators in a 5-4 overtime loss on Thursday.

    Let's look more into the storylines coming out of this game, and look ahead to the Capitals' return to the District on Saturday.

    Advanced Stats Are a Bit Deceptive

    If you take a look at the Corsi ratings and other stats for both teams, it makes this game seem closer than it really was. And to Washington's credit, it managed to tie the game up in the third, only to fall in OT.

    The Corsi stats show a fairly even first two periods, with the Capitals having a bigger third. But watching this game play out in real-time, it was evident that Washington was off to a much slower start than it seemed. 

    Through much of the first, Ottawa held the Capitals to low-danger chances and shot attempts. Even through the second period, Ottawa held the advantage in Corsi, despite yielding a goal to Washington on the power play. 

    Heat map of last night's game, courtesy of Natural Stat TrickCorsi stats for both teams last night, courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

    As you can see plainly above, both teams played fairly evenly through the first two periods in terms of possession and attempted shots, though the Senators had the advantage.

    That was until the third when Washington began to get the better of Ottawa. What it all boils down to was the Senators making their chances count, whereas the Capitals simply weren't. Ottawa also made the most of their shot-blocking ability, blocking 14 shots to D.C.'s five. 

    The Capitals' Lack of Discipline Hurts Them in the End

    To say that the Capitals played undisciplined hockey on Thurday would be an understatement.

    Washington started off taking back-to-back too many man penalties in the first, which is a good way to kill any ability to generate momentum. A second-period penalty to Taylor Raddysh gave way to yet another power play, where Ridly Greig deflected home the game's opening goal.

    Then, when the Capitals were on their own power play later on, a John Carlson trip on Josh Norris gave way to a Josh Norris penalty shot goal, and then seconds later, another short-handed goal, this time for Shane Pinto.

    Now, Ottawa was just as undisciplined on Thursday. Maybe the refs just felt like blowing the whistle a bunch.

    Ultimately yielding 10 penalty minutes and two penalty shots, which came on two D.C. power plays, will absolutely crush any team's ability to build momentum. Granted, the Senators have been playing good hockey lately and has a speedy counterattack. But Washington is arguably a better team than Ottawa in nearly all respects.

    The undisciplined play is something they will have to clean up, not to mention the general lack of cohesion and disorganization that has plagued the team in recent weeks (and especially on the power play).

    Let's Think Positively: Ovechkin Scored, And Strome Appears To Be Back to Form

    Let's get away from the negative part of this analysis to look at the positives.

    First, Alex Ovechkin scored No. 876, and it's an absolute beauty when you dissect it:

    To the layperson, this may just appear to be a point shot from the Great Eight that beats Anton Forsberg. But watch Ovechkin shake off Ottawa's Matthew Highmore with that subtle fake pass before shooting it. Highmore (and the rest of the Senators) clearly expected a pass before he launched it.

    What a thing of beauty by the captain, who is now 19 goals away from passing Wayne Gretzky.

    Also, Strome scored twice, including battling for the rebound to tie the game in the third:

    You can read more here from Sammi about Thursday's point streaks and scoring, but it is nice to see Strome back to scoring goals. It is also nice that we can all get half-off Papa John's, too. 

    Courtesy of the Washington Capitals

    No Place Like Home

    The road trip may be over, but the difficulty isn't, as the current league-leading Winnipeg Jets come to town for a weekend match with the Capitals. 

    Winnipeg has always been an interesting team to watch, and one I've admittedly been a fan of since their return to the 'Peg in 2011.

    On one hand, they've had several excellent regular seasons and played some good hockey. On the other hand, they've had to shake off some locker-room drama over the years and have only had a handful of deep playoff runs, with 2018 being their most noteworthy run to the Western Conference Final. 

    This is a team with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele however, and have been jousting with Washington both as the top-scoring team all season (they currently sit at a 3.58 goals per game average, with the Capitals at 3.49), and the team with the fewest goals against (now at 2.39 to D.C.'s 2.40).

    And of course, Connor Hellebuyck is one of the few goalies playing better than Logan Thompson these days (both goalies have a league-best .927 save percentage).

    Saturday's game is one that Washington has surely had circled on the calendar for a while now. The top two teams in the league facing off for the first time all season. It will be a critical test for the Capitals, and one they will have to be at their best to come out on top.

    It will also be must-watch hockey for any fan. Let's be real- this could be a Stanley Cup Final preview, and I can't imagine this being boring to watch.