17 Things: How The Capitals Keep Winning & Defying The Analytics, Roster Decisions Loom, Miroshnichenko's Impression & Prospect Report

Here are some thoughts and things to consider surrounding the Capitals as they go on holiday break.

The Washington Capitals are officially on the holiday break, and after a busy past few weeks consisting of a handful of back-to-backs — where they remain undefeated in the second half of those series — and some tight games, the team sits in Wild Card territory with games in hand, while remaining just two points out of second place in the Metropolitan Division under new head coach Spencer Carbery.

To break things down, I'm launching a new "17 Things" column, where I share my latest analysis and thoughts on the Capitals. Think Elliotte Friedman's "32 Thoughts," but a Capitals version. Pretty cool stuff.

So without further ado, let's get going on Christmas Eve.

1. Alright, let's take a look at this. JFresh Hockey was asked how exactly the Capitals are good, and the analytics expert responded with a diagram and interesting answer that is somewhat true: he doesn't know. On paper, this is not a team that stands out or steals headlines. So what's winning games? We have to use the good ol' fashioned eye test, which is something I rely on since I hate math. I kid... and I digress. But asking the players, and Dylan Strome, it stems from confidence and grit: this team will find a way, whether it's one really good shift, one power play or one push. Combine that with some steady goaltending, and you get two points. I've never been a huge believer in advanced statistics — don't get me wrong, there's a story that they tell — but watching this team, there's always a flash of something that helps D.C. grind out a win.

2. Charlie Lindgren is one of those players that's stepped up to steal points. The 30-year-old netminder is showing that he's the real deal and a bonafide starter. He has a .928 save percentage through 14 games and is the fourth-best goalie in the league going into the break when it comes to goals saved above expected (11.9). This offseason consisted of him taking things to the next level, as he hired a mobility coach, became a believer in chiropractic and worked closely with fellow Minnesota native Jake Oettinger.

3. Darcy Kuemper is also starting to figure it out, but even when the numbers didn't stand out on paper to start the year for him, he told me his confidence never wavered. Lindgren also stood by his partner, saying that he's still among the best in the NHL and that the stats don't tell the full story. Sometimes, it's just bad bounces, and that's what Kuemper chalked it up to. And now, the confidence appears back for the veteran, who is also perfect in shootouts this season.

4. Now, on to some roster talk. Max Pacioretty is expected back shortly after the start of the holiday break, and I think he's exactly what the Capitals need. The 34-year-old may have dealt with some adversity after two Achilles tears in a span of five months but he has proven to be a consistent goal scorer over the course of his career. Even last year, in five games back in the lineup, he had three goals. Washington is struggling to score at even strength, and adding Pacioretty provides a boost to that third-line left wing, which is where he's projected to line up. Meanwhile, the power play is starting to turn things around, and putting another veteran there adds a new look to a continuously evolving man advantage.

5. Same goes for Ethan Bear. I see him bringing a lot more stability to that right side, which has witnessed a bit of a shaky start for the likes of Trevor van Riemsdyk and Nick Jensen. Bear can log top-4 minutes and has a defensive M.O., but he can also jump up in the rush. Head coach Spencer Carbery also sees him as a potential power-play weapon, which would be interesting to see.

6. There's currently a roster spot open for Bear with Lucas Johansen having headed back to Hershey, but the team would have to open up another spot with Pacioretty coming off long-term injured reserve, even with Sonny Milano and T.J. Oshie on IR. Matthew Phillips is that odd man out up front, but a decision on Alex Alexeyev also appears imminent when it comes time to open more spots. Both require waivers.

7. While I believe Phillips would clear and subsequently thrive with top-6 minutes down with the AHL's Hershey Bears – who are off to their best start through 30 games in franchise history — I truly am unsure if Alexeyev would clear or not. Only 24 and still has potential, and it's been a very small sample size for him so far in his career. He has played in just 10 games this season, and regardless of where that is, seeing him play rather than wait in the wings as a healthy scratch is a better option for him.

8. Speaking of the Bears, it's been fun to watch Pierrick Dube this season. The French forward signed his entry-level deal with Washington this offseason, and he leads the AHL in goals (16) to open the 2023-24 AHL campaign. I'd love to see him get a call-up at some point, but he's on the right track.

9. Another budding wing prospect to keep an eye on: Ivan Miroshnichenko, who made quite the impact in his first three NHL games. Carbery made it clear he didn't have high expectations for the Russian, who is still learning English and adapting to the North American game, but he still impressed in his small stint up with the team. He had four shots on goal and came close to scoring his first up at the highest level on multiple occasions, while his average shot speed came in at 65.36 miles per hour, which ranks in the 89th percentile league-wide (yes, small sample size, but still impressive). His top shot clocked in at 81.26 MPH in the first period of his debut against the New York Islanders. Beyond the numbers, his positioning was also impressive, as he had a couple of really strong plays that spoke volumes and indicated proper development and maturity for No. 63. There is a lot of promise for him.

10. His fellow call-up, Hendrix Lapierre, also continues to impress me game by game. Nic Dowd told me that he is a "very cheerful kid," and he's also incredibly driven. The work ethic is there, and he's translated that into his game this season while reaping the reward. If he doesn't make the full-time jump up to the NHL next season, or at least play half the season up here in 2024-25, I'll be shocked.

11. That brings us to another center: Evgeny Kuznetsov. The 31-year-old has not been able to find consistency this season, but it's not for a lack of trying. The creativity is there, it's just a matter of putting it all together and translating it to the ice. Illness, as well as a revolving door of linemates, hasn't helped either. Still, he's the center of trade talks again, as The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun indicates that a move seems more likely in the offseason. And given Lapierre's play and a youth movement rising in the District, one has to wonder if a move will finally be made.

12. Back to prospects real quick: Ryan Leonard had two goals in two periods in Team USA's preliminary game against Team Canada at World Juniors, and the NCAA life is treating him well as he's a force to be reckoned with against Boston College. I wouldn't be surprised if an entry-level deal comes after this season given his success. The size, speed and hockey IQ is there, and D.C. could benefit from a young player like him to continue to spark the offense. He resembles Tom Wilson quite a bit — with a mix of Oshie — and he's certainly a high-energy player that would work well with a coach like Carbery. Exciting stuff down the pipeline.

13. Another player who was on the trade block, but may not be anymore: Anthony Mantha. It's great to see him not only finding twine and consistency again, but he's having fun while remaining on pace for a 20-goal season. We caught up 1-on-1 earlier in the month, and he told me he's finding joy in the game again while Carbery's leadership has made him a lot better with and without the puck. Not only that, but maturity has gone a long way; he admitted he knew nothing would be given to him this season, and also told me that he feels more mature as he's taking more individual accountability. For a guy in a contract year who's been on the other end of trade talk and critiques for the last few seasons, it's got to be fun for him.

14. His linemate, Aliaksei Protas, has also gone from a tentative third-year player with a lot to prove to a staple on the top-6. It's not just his numbers that have impressed, as it took him half the time this year to establish a new career high in scoring. He's faster, stronger, more physical and engaged at both ends of the ice. Protas told me that Carbery has made all the difference for him, but also explained that he's worked on changing his approach, which has made it easier for him to dominate.

15. Another fun tidbit on No. 21: in Belarus, there were limited skates, so they gave the 6-foot-6 forward, who was always on the taller side, size 12 skates. When he got to North America, he stuck his feet in the Bauer Performance Fit System and got a foot scan for the first time. There, he discovered he was a 10.5. Didn't do anything to fill that extra space in his past skates, and admitted moving down one and a half sizes was a life changer. He also has a trick for tightening his laces, and tapes the loops to the bottom of his shin pads before every game.

16. More gear geek stuff: Nicklas Backstrom, who remains undecided on his retirement after stepping away from the game (despite any wording from general manager Brian MacLellan, Backstrom has not said he's done), was telling me he retaped his stick every single period of every single game. That's a lot of Howie's.

17. Alex Ovechkin busted out of a 14-game goal drought back on Thursday against the Columbus Blue Jackets in storybook fashion after some Elvis Merzlikins antics. The captain has been more noticeable game by game of late. So, I'll pass along the warning the Capitals gave me: never bet against the big man. He has 828 career regular-season goals now and 900 combined between regular season and playoffs. I still consider him the best goal scorer of all time, record or not, just from his shot, ability, and how he's been in goalies' nightmares in a brand-new era where scoring just isn't easy. If you need proof of how hard it is to score in this league, just look at the evolution of the game.