Canada, America, Sweden and Finland will take part in the 4 Nations Face-Off starting Feb. 12, 2025. Adam Proteau gives his ranking for how the four countries will likely fair at the tournament.

The NHL and NHL Players Association revealed this weekend the dates and host cities for the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off tournament. The first names for team rosters for the event are scheduled to be announced June 28, with the remainder of the roster announced near the end of 2024. But not to worry – THN.com has already projected rosters for the Canadian, American, Swedish and Finnish teams. You can find Canada’s projected roster here; the U.S. roster here; the Swedish roster here; and Finland’s roster here.

With that information in mind, let’s start the fun by ranking the four teams based on their likelihood of winning the tournament. As always, these are educated guesses, with a dash of hunch worked in. Let’s get to it:

1. U.S.A.

In most best-on-best international tournaments, the Canadian team is the prohibitive favorite. But not in this tournament. The American team is the favorite to win it all in large part because they have the best goaltending of any 4 Nations team. Indeed, with Jeremy Swayman, Thatcher Demko, Connor Hellebuyck and Jake Oettinger to choose from, the U.S. really can’t go wrong.

Similarly, the American defense corps is at least equal to Canada’s, as Americans including Charlie McAvoy, Zach Werenski, Quinn Hughes, Adam Fox, Jaccob Slavin and John Carlson are a shoo-in. Should any of those D-men get injured, the U.S. has depth options in Justin Faulk, Seth Jones, Jacob Trouba and K’Andre Miller. That’s impressive, and that’s why the Americans look so good on the back end.

At forward, the Canadians might have a slight edge (and more about those forwards below), but Team U.S.A.’s forwards are nothing to sneer at, with Auston Matthews, Patrick Kane, Jack Hughes, the Tkachuk Brothers, Jason Robertson, Johnny Gaudreau, and Jack Eichel all basically locks to make the roster. If they are behind the Canadians in that regard, they’re not behind them by much at all, and their supremacy on defense and in goal should be the difference in making them the victors of this tournament. America’s depth has never been better, and in the championship game, on home ice in Boston, the U.S. is likeliest to emerge as the winner.

2. Canada

Once again, the Canadians have an imposing roster, especially at forward, where icons including Sidney Crosby, Brad Marchand, Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Steven Stamkos and Connor Bedard should terrify the opposition’s defenders. Their defense is also formidable, with Dougie Hamilton, Cale Makar, Devon Toews, Brandon Montour, Owen Power and Shea Theodore likely locked into the top six defensemen available for Canada.

The problem for them comes with their goaltending, as veterans Marc-Andre Fleury, Darcy Kuemper, Jordan Binnington and Tristan Jarry all have struggled with their consistency in recent years. Other options would be Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner and Vegas’ Logan Thompson, as well as youngsters including New Jersey’s Nico Daws. It may come down to who’s playing best at the time the final rosters have to be submitted, and that’s troubling considering how tremendous their American rivals are between the pipes.

Canada could emerge as the winner of the 4 Nations Face-Off, primarily because of their depth up front. But they have to overcome concerns in their own zone to do so. A second-place finish isn’t at all out of the question for them, but neither is a first-place finish.

3. Sweden

The Swedes’ roster isn’t terrible by any metric, but their roster also isn’t as deep or impressive as the U.S.’s and Canada’s. In net, the Swedes will probably go with Boston’s Linus Ullmark and Calgary’s Jacob Markstrom as their primary goaltenders, and on defense, there’s a good balance of youngsters (Gustav Forsling, Rasmus Dahlin and Rasmus Sandin) and experienced stars (Erik Karlsson, Mattias Ekholm, and Victor Hedman). They just don’t have the high-end superpower at forward that the Canadians and Americans have.

Now, the Swedes will certainly put up a fight up front, with stars including William Nylander, Lucas Raymond, Elias Pettersson, Filip Forsberg, Gabriel Landeskog, Jesper Bratt and Leo Carlsson leading the way. But with all due respect for the rest of Sweden’s group of forwards, they don’t compare to the depth that Canada and America can boast of.

Would we say the Swedes don’t have it in them to pull off an upset? Not at all. But playing before hostile crowds in Montreal and Boston will only increase the size of the hill Sweden has to climb, and if they don’t wind up winning this tournament, it won’t be for lack of effort. Sweden has a good foundation to build around, but at this point, they don’t have the horses to keep pace with the upper two teams in the 4 Nations Face-Off.

4. Finland

Ah, the plucky Finns – forever the underdog, no matter what tournament we’re talking about. Finland has an elite player or two in goal (Juuse Saros), on defense (Miro Heiskanen) and at forward (Aleksander Barkov, Roope Hintz, Mikko Rantanen, Sebastian Aho), but much of their roster is comprised of fringe NHLers who don’t compare to the best Canada and America have to offer.

Good health will be a must for Finland, as their depth is the worst of any of these four teams. But the Finns are known for playing smart hockey as a unit, and they’re bound to be well-coached once again. It would be a massive upset if Finland wound up winning the 4 Nations Face-Off, but that’s why they play the games.

The Finns have next to no pressure to win it all, and in the end, that might help them exceed expectations and be a surprise finalist. They’re the least-talented team in the tourney, but they could very well come together as the underdog and end up shocking the hockey world. It won’t be easy, but they won’t be pushovers either.