Japan's International Women's Hockey Collapse Was Inevitable

Japan could still remain in the top division of the women's IIHF World Championships. But they'll need to upset Canada, Sweden, or Finland, or beat Austria in a relegation game to do so. 

Those stakes became clear after Japan fell to Denmark in group play. Denmark was the lowest ranked nation in the event coming in, finishing second to Austria at last year's Division 1A tournament. 

A steadfast member of the top division since 2019, Japan's collapse at this level has been has been a long time coming, and whether they're relegated this season, or in the future, that fate is on the horizon as well. 

Central to Japan's struggles are a lack of players competing in top leagues globally. No team at the 2026 World Championship has less experience at the NCAA, SDHL, or PWHL levels, and no team has fewer players competing in Europe and North America. 

The bulk of Japan's roster continues to play domestically in the Japanese women's league. At the 2026 World Championships, 18 of the 23 players Japan named to their roster are playing in Japan this season. 

Veteran Akane Shiga is set to return to the PWHL this season finding a spot with PWHL Detroit after the league added four teams this offseason. Their best player early in the tournament, 18-year-old Umeka Odaira, is playing in the OWHL for the North York Storm, spending the season adapting to the North American game before making the jump to the NCAA, where she'll become the only member of Japan's national team in the collegiate loop. The NCAA is currently the top development pathway in the world for women's hockey players. Every member of Canada and USA's roster are either currently attending, or are graduates of NCAA programs.

Japan's collapse against Denmark was staggering, but not unexpected. They were upset by Italy, a program that remains in Division 1A, at the 2026 Olympics in Milan. Following that tournament, Japan's leadership was clear about not only their losses in the standings, but their losses in competitiveness against teams they previously sat above.

One of those teams is Sweden, who has made remarkable gains in recent seasons, playing in the bronze medal game at Milan, while Japan went home early. It marks the second consecutive major tournament where Japan will finish outside the top eight, and outside the quarterfinals. 

"Compared to the last Olympics, Sweden was really much faster and improved,” head coach Yuji Iizuka told the Japan Times following the loss. “We also improved but Sweden just improved more.”

Then captain Shiori Koike saw the growth other nations had experienced, and the lack of development Japan has witnessed as well.

“I really got the impression that other countries’ growth speed is accelerating quite rapidly,” Koike said. “Especially when it comes to contact. The games are getting so physical that even the referees aren’t calling penalties. The level of play is truly becoming world-class.”

Stylistically, Japan is being left behind by the physicality of the sport with body checking now legal not only in the PWHL, but in the SDHL, PostFinance Women's League, Auroraliiga, EWHL, and elsewhere across the globe. For Japan, a team that averages only 5'3", a full three inches shorter than the next smallest teams, and carries an average weight of only 128 lbs, giving up almost 10 lbs per player to the next lightest team, the style of the game no longer matches the players Team Japan is selecting. Odaira (5'4") and Shiga (5'5") are two of Japans largest forwards behind only Makoto Ito (5'7") and Rio Noro (5'5"). 

While size and style are a factor, the lack of regular competition against top competition is perhaps the most significant detriment facing their national team. The majority of their players have not competed in the NCAA, let alone a professional league. In the last five years, Japan has watched several nations pass them by, and the list of nations ready to take their spot, who have altered their development models and are making considerable gains is growing. Among those nations are programs like Slovakia, Austria, Hungary, France, Italy, and Norway. With their win over Japan at the 2026 Worlds, Denmark, who entered the tournament two spots below Japan in the IIHF world rankings, could flip places with the Japanese as well.

While Japan's collapse at the 2026 tournament was stunning, it was not unexpected, and unless Japan's Ice Hockey Federation makes significant changes and plans for the development of women's hockey both domestically, and by sending players abroad, it may only be the beginning of Japan's downward slide in international women's hockey.