When Canada and USA face off yet again for Olympic women's hockey gold, there will be a key favorite in 2026. USA enters the gold medal game having outscored their opponents 31-1, including a 5-0 shutout against Team Canada, the largest ever against a Canadian men's or women's team in Olympic history.

In a one game, winner takes all final however, anything can happen. 

"[I]t’s now one game for a win. Obviously, the U.S. is a talented, skilled team and so are we," said Canadian captain Marie-Philip Poulin. "It’s going to be a battle, we all know that and it’s going to be competitive out there. We’re going to have to be ready for puck drop and go from there, but we’re excited for the opportunity to play in the gold medal game."

The only thing that could get in the way of an American gold medal in the 2026 Olympic women's hockey tournament is the Americans. Inexplicably the team lost their calm multiple times against Italy and Sweden in games where they were full in control. There were times when they didn't look like a calm and cool champion, but rather looked like they were a team that couldn't manage even the slightest instance that didn't go their way. If Canada were to score first, or USA took a few bad penalties, the pressure would be on to see how USA reacts. Bad penalties are another portion of this. Abbey Murphy is the one to watch here. She is a master of drawing penalties, but most know that she does it through diving and embellishment as often as hard and fast play. She ran Swedish netminder Emma Soderberg behind the net in the semifinals in a completely unnecessary play, and she's not the only player known for that type of action on Team USA, who also features Britta Curl (although Curl has controlled her game in Italy). Canada has the most effective power play thus far in the tournament, and that's something USA needs to not allow the Canadians to utilize. There's truly only one team that can beat the Americans in Milan, and it's themselves.

That said, USA has everything it takes to win. They don't need to change their free flowing, almost positionless style as Canada hasn't been able to adapt or implement a system capable of slowing them down in five meetings this season. They'll want to ensure there's coverage for their offensive defenders including Haley Winn, Megan Keller, Laila Edwards, Cayla Barnes, and Caroline Harvey who all love to join the attack. 

If there's one other item USA will look to focus on, it's a quicker start. While they've been dominant in this tournament, the first period has been USA's worst. They haven't allowed a lot in the first, but they also haven't scored often. Under no circumstances does the United States want to find themselves playing from behind early. Pinning Canada in their zone for as long as possible in the first, even if they don't convert, is key, but USA will not want to play from behind for the first time in the tournament in the gold medal game.

The only thing more frightening that a 100% healthy and happy Marie-Philip Poulin is an injured and ornery Marie-Philip Poulin. USA has learned the hard way before not to mess with Captain Clutch, and while they need to put special attention in to mitigating her impact and shutting down Canada's top line of Poulin, Sarah Fillier, and Daryl Watts, they also need to do so with kids gloves on. The last thing USA wants to do is poke Poulin, who is already in that mental zone where she's most dangerous.

Poulin however, won't sit back idly and allow USA to walk to gold uncontested, and the best possible scenario is that she can spill that snarl to the rest of the locker room. Canada needs a "flag controversy" style motivator like they've had in the past, because they're playing without urgency. Poulin is going to do everything in her power to bring that, and Canada's best hope for gold is that every member of their roster steps on the ice with a snarl.

In net, Ann-Renee Desbiens cannot allow a soft goal. Canada needs her to be perfect. Desbiens has looked human at this tournament, but she's been having another outstanding season in the PWHL. Canada can not afford to allow more than a goal, or two at most, and still have a chance against USA's powerful offense. Their blueline will play a big role in this as well, keeping their play simplified and working to relieve pressure, not to do anything fancy, or themselves try to beat the forecheck with the puck.

On the positive side, Canada's power play has been highly effective in the tournament. To beat the United States, scoring with the player advantage is more than a bonus, it's a requirement. They've scored at a 36.84% rate in this tournament, more than 10% better than any other time. Then again, they are facing an American team that enters the gold medal game with the best penalty kill in the tournament. USA has yet to allow a power play goal against posting a 100% kill. 

Finally, it seems like an impossibility at this point given Canada's deployment in this tournament, but Troy Ryan must utilize the players on his roster who bring more speed to the table and leave some of his veterans on the bench. Ryan has left the line of Kristin O'Neill, Julia Gosling, and Jennifer Gardiner on the bench much of this tournament but they've remained one of his most impactful units. Conversely, some of Canada's veterans, whether it be Jocelyn Larocque, Brianne Jenner, or Natalie Spooner have struggled to keep up. They all can contribute, but this is not the instance to play favorites, it's a moment to put the players who best match USA on the ice as often as possible.