Team Italy wanted to shock the hockey world at the latest Olympic Games.

And they did.

Very few people thought Italy had a chance to win multiple games and make the quarterfinals.

But now everything is different.

With the upcoming World Championships (Division 1 Group A), Team Italy is, on paper, one of the favourite teams to win gold.

Why? Many reasons.

Last year, they dominated their competition in Division 1B, winning all five of their games. That’s why they were promoted to Division 1A this year.

At the Olympics, they came close to beating Germany, and in many ways, they surprised Team USA. They easily beat France, and also defeated Japan in Milan.

Using the transitive property of inequality, in other words, an old algebraic formula saying that if a > b, and b > c, then a > c, Italy is in a good position. France defeated China last year, while Japan easily defeated both Hungary and Norway.

However, that’s only good on paper. In reality, Italy’s chances may not be strong.

Again, many reasons factor in.

First off, the quality of opponents. Algebra is all good and well, but we all know that you win a hockey game on the ice.

Italy may have surfed over the competition in Division 1B last year, but they won’t be facing Slovenia, Great Britain or South Korea anymore. They will go against teams that have been to the show; teams who finished in the top 10 before.

Historically speaking, Italy has been in Division 1A only once, in 2019, with teams like Slovakia, Hungary, and Norway. They lost their five games, scored only three goals and were sent back to Division 1B. 

Their best all-time ranking is 16th in the world. Winning Division 1A would mean being 11th, which they've never come close of reaching before. The top two teams will move up, so they could also finish second.

There are also questions to be raised about the roster on and off the ice.

Montreal’s head coach Kori Cheverie has already confirmed that the plan is to send Team Italy’s captain Nadia Mattivi to the Worlds. But nothing has been confirmed by Toronto’s GM Gina Kingsbury about Kristin Della Rovere.

Let’s remember that Toronto signed Della Rovere to a standard contract when New York came knocking and wanted to sign her. Since then, she's only played an average of four minutes per game. Not enough to actually have the same impact she would have had in New York, where she would have played at least twice that much.

But with Toronto fighting to make the playoffs, and even if according to the CBA, teams have to allow players to play international tournaments, Kingsbury could always try to convince her player to stay in the PWHL.

Della Rovere was the best forward for Italy at the Olympics and not being able to count on her would be a huge blow.

Another question mark is behind the bench.

Head coach Eric Bouchard is also assistant coach with the Shawinigan Cataractes of the QMJHL. If the team beats Sherbrooke in the first round of the playoffs, he won’t be able to be in Budapest and coach Team Italy. As of this writing, Shawinigan is trailing the best-of-seven series 3-2.

Fans and many experts don’t realize Bouchard's importance to this team. With his coaching staff, he was able to earn the trust of his players, who may all secretly be wishing he loses that series. That’s how instrumental he is to this team.

Since November, Bouchard made Italy his team. Not anybody else's.

That being said, he’s a young coach who’s never been put in that type of situation before, at this kind of international level. 

Will Bouchard be able to step up?

If he’s there, it will be his chance to prove that the Olympic tournament wasn’t a fluke.

Without him behind the bench, the chances of Italy winning gold or even silver are considerably smaller.

Pier-Alexandre Poulin, one of Bouchard’s assistant coaches in Milan, could replace him in Budapest. He has experience as a head coach, but he’s in the same boat as Bouchard. He’s an assistant coach with Andre-Laurendeau Cégep in Montreal and their best-of-three quarterfinal series is currently tied 1-1. Another win and Poulin would have to stay on this side of the pond.

If both Bouchard and Poulin can’t be there, that would only leave Italy’s assistant-coach Alexandre Tremblay as the logical choice. He’s one of the best skill coaches you’ll find, has been an assistant coach with the Montreal Victoire and at the Olympics, but he’s never been head coach before. His inexperience could be a factor here. 

The last issue, and that’s true even if Della Rovere and Bouchard are with the team, resides in the fact that at the Olympics, Italy was the ultimate underdog.

And it’s much easier to play when you've got nothing to lose.

In Budapest next week, following their Olympics success, Italy will play with the pressure of winning. Which is a totally different thing.

Pressure will be high especially against France, who will want to get revenge for Milan. But, also, against Norway and Hungary, who will fight to go back to the Top Division.

The Olympics, the village, the atmosphere, the sold-out crowds, the coverage, all that was a huge high for them. But in front of a few hundred people with little to no coverage, it won’t be the same feeling. 

Before the Olympics, the team had two months of centralization in Montreal to get prepared for that challenge. They won’t have that here. In fact, they will have barely a week to get ready before puck drops on April 12, with some of their players not having had a game in weeks.

So, all things considered, it could really be hit or miss for Team Italy. A hit and they will be in the Top Division in November 2027 for the very first time. A miss, and they will have to regroup and try again in 18 months.

Without a doubt, next week will be a defining moment for the Italian women’s program.