With the announcement of expansion rules for Seattle and Vancouver, the PWHL has created a complex situation for GM’s and players going into the June 3rd protection deadline, the June 4th-8th exclusive signing window, and the June 9th expansion draft.
Which three players should each team protect? This number is lower than many observers expected, and opens opportunities for the expansion teams to grab some very significant players from all six teams. It also means that existing teams might need to consider strategically exposing players who they think won’t be chosen for various reasons, or viewing the season after next, when all of the original high-dollar contracts expire and free agency is suddenly a free-for-all.
Questions:
Should teams expose initial signings and draft picks?
These are the six players who are making 80,000 + and who will be free agents next summer. If someone has underperformed (e.g. Kristin O’Neill, Kristen Campbell), it’s probably a good idea to expose them and allow someone else to take on the commitment. Even someone who has performed well but is somewhat overpaid might be worth exposing. And if they aren’t chosen, you’ve at least safeguarded someone else on your roster.
Will expansion teams avoid any of those players?
If Seattle and Vancouver do select those players (and they definitely will), they are taking on the financial commitment for one year, knowing the player will be a free agent and could easily return to their original market in 26-27. Is it smarter to look at players who are signed beyond that, and also cost less? For instance, Montreal's Cayla Barnes is signed for two more years, and might be a better option than Erin Ambrose for that reason (without knowing whether those players are exposed, of course).
What will teams do with goaltenders?
Obviously, this is a premiere position and the most important to lock down for both expansion teams and for the original six. You can bet that Aerin Frankel, Ann-Renee Desbiens, and Corinne Schroeder will be protected. But for teams without a slam-dunk #1 goalie, is it realistic that they wouldn’t protect anyone, and let the chips fall where they may? For example, could Ottawa expose both of their excellent netminders (Maschmeyer and Philips) in order to protect another important player like Mrazova or Bell, or would they choose one (most likely Philips)? There’s a very real risk both would be taken, so they probably have to protect one, but remember, as soon as a team loses two players, they can protect an extra one.
Goaltending is also a position of surplus in the PWHL, and perhaps there would be trades or free agents available if a team wanted to risk opening their crease to chaos. Elaine Chuli, Maddie Rooney, Emma Soderberg, and Klara Peslarova are all free agents, and perhaps a GM can find an opportunity to mitigate their losses there.
Will the two expansion teams avoid free agents during the exclusive signing period?
The list of free agents is strong, but is it strong enough that an expansion GM would sacrifice a spot that could be given to the huge names that will be available on June 9? If Seattle and Vancouver choose wisely on that day, they can circle back to the free agents and still have the upper hand financially to be able to offer more than the other six teams. Hannah Miller, for example, is a prime candidate to be signed by her hometown team, Vancouver. But if they sign her before the expansion draft, they miss out on another top player who won’t be available again. You’d have to think hard about whether Michela Cava, Susanna Tapani, or Miller would be someone to target (knowing you have a window of opportunity), or if it’s wiser to use all 12 of your spots on expansion players and then join the rest of the league in a free agent competition.
Will expansion teams try to sign unprotected players during the exclusive signing period?
Keep in mind, the signing period is also for players left unprotected. This means that Seattle and Vancouver might compete with each other to get a particular player to agree to join them, rather than risk the other team taking them during the expansion draft. This depends much more on the player's preference, since once a team reaches out to them about joining, they have to expect to be selected. Jennifer Gardiner is a prime example of a candidate to be signed (presumably unprotected), since she is from Vancouver and is all but guaranteed to be chosen.
How are the lower roster players affected?
If the PWHL had allowed more than three players to be protected, we wondered about rookies and middle six forwards being likely candidates for the expansion teams. But with the restrictions so minimal, it appears that those players, although they might be on longer, cheaper deals, might be more likely to remain with their original teams. Players like Izzy Daniel, Jamie Lee Rattray, Brooke McQuigge and many others were considered to be foremost in the sights of the expansion GM’s, but with the players who will now be available, they will likely now remain with their teams. Whether this contributes to enough continuity for fans to be placated is still a problem.