Who will the finish first in the standings and choose their playoff opponent? Unpacking the strategic choices and matchups that could define the first round.
With the PWHL playoff picture coming into focus after the Victoire clinched a spot last night, the question isn’t just who gets in—it’s who gets whom. And who finishes first to get the advantage (?) of picking their first-round opponent. (In the first two seasons, the first-place team has lost those series both times, Toronto losing to Minnesota in season one and Montreal being defeated by Ottawa last year).
If we assume the Frost will get in, which looks like a safe bet, the matchups between the top three teams are starting to tell a very specific story: it's best to have the option to pick the fourth seed.
Boston: In Control, But One Matchup Still Unsettled
Boston has the strongest position of the three—not just in the standings, but in head-to-head results.
They’ve taken 5 of 6 points from Montréal (1–1–0–0) and 6 of 9 points from Minnesota (2–0–0–1). On paper, that suggests Boston can handle either opponent. But the details matter.
Minnesota is the only one of the two to beat Boston in regulation—and did so convincingly, 5-2 in December. Montreal, meanwhile, hasn’t beaten Boston yet, but both games were tight, including a 3-2 overtime loss in March, and there are still two games left in that series.
That leaves the Fleet in a delicate spot. The Frost looks more manageable over a larger sample, but Montreal represents more unresolved risk—a team they’ve controlled so far, but haven’t put away. And the series Boston played vs. Montreal in season one was an instant classic: three long overtime games that all went to the Fleet, with huge credit to Aerin Frankel.
Snapshot: Boston likely prefers Minnesota, but isn’t strongly exposed either way.
Montreal: Strong Results vs Minnesota
Montreal didn’t just win the season series against Minnesota—they swept it, outscoring them 12–3 and allowing just two goals in regulation.
Against Boston, the results are worse on paper (1 point in 2 games), but might be more encouraging in context. Both games were one-goal decisions, one went to overtime, and crucially, two games remain.
This one isn't hard to call, and Montreal has to hope they don't get pushed into a series vs. the Fleet. With two more games, the outlook could change, but the Victoire already know they match up well against the Frost.
These two have never faced each other in a playoff series, and it would shape up to be a spicy contest.
Snapshot: Montreal would likely prefer Minnesota, and avoid Minnesota’s volatility.
Minnesota: The Clearest Preference of the Three
Minnesota’s outlook is the most straightforward.
They’ve taken 3 points in three games versus the Fleet and 2 points in four games against Montreal.
Against Boston, the Frost has shown it can win—and win convincingly. Against the Victoire, the story is more frustrating: two overtime losses, a shutout defeat, and an overall inability to consistently break through. That vaunted offense doesn't show up.
Even when competitive, the Frost has struggled to close against Montreal. That’s a dangerous pattern in a playoff setting. By contrast, Boston presents a more open path—one where the Frost's offense has already proven it can tilt a game. Add to that the fact that they defeated Boston in the Walter Cup finals in season one.
Snapshot: Minnesota clearly prefers Boston and would want to avoid Montreal.
The Triangle That Defines the Race
When you line it all up, the dynamic is clean: the Fleet have controlled both teams in points; Montreal has controlled Minnesota, and Minnesota is more competitive with Boston than the Victoire.
It’s not quite rock-paper-scissors—but it’s close enough to shape how the standings matter beyond simple seeding. Finishing first (and presumably avoiding the other two completely) is still the best course of action for all three teams.