Best Bets for Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final

It all comes down to tonight. Vegas can lift Lord Stanley's mug with a win tonight, while Florida looks to stay alive. Paul Maurice wouldn't say if Matthew Tkachuk would play or not, but I could see a scenario where he dresses and plays power play, key offensive zone draws and 6 on 5, if necessary. When Zdeno Chara broke his jaw in 2019, he dressed and sat on the bench because his presence was vital to the Bruins. Tkachuk has the same impact for Florida and if he's just chirping from the bench and supporting his teammates, that is better than nothing. 

Tkachuk is clearly not healthy and that's a massive blow. However, we've seen this type of thing galvanize a team and inspire everyone to play better. It's not a science, but psychologically, we've seen it happen on numerous occasions. Regardless, Sasha Barkov is going to have to pick up the slack in a major way if Tkachuk is limited. Barkov over 2.5 shots is my best bet of the night. In a must-win game, Barkov has to lead the charge at both ends of the ice. I wouldn't be surprised if he scores, either. 

We're going back to the well with Sergei Bobrovsky, again. He was stellar in both games 3 and 4, and will have to be tonight if Florida has any hope. Goaltending can be fickle, but he's been at his best more often than not this post-season, I'm taking over 28.5 saves. 

Based on trends, I love a few of the shot block props on BetMGM. Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad play key roles for Florida and see a lot of penalty kill time. I don't expect there will be many penalties tonight, but I do expect the defensive leaders for Florida to step in front of shots in a do or die game. Both are good bets at over 1.5 blocks. Vegas loves blocking shots to protect their goalies. McNabb, Pietrangelo and Whitecloud are consistent blockers for them. McNabb and Whitecloud will be covered in ice bags when all is said and done based on the amount of rubber they step in front of. Whitecloud's line of -200 for 2 blocks is juiced, whereas McNabb and Pietrangelo's line of over 2.5 blocks is more palatable.

A few players on each team have a propensity to show up in big games. Mark Stone is top of that list. I'll take Stone for over 2.5 shots tonight and to record a point. On the other side, Sam Bennett. With Matthew Tkachuk hurt, Bennett will play a key role for Florida this evening. I'll take a Bennett point at -135. 

Lastly, I think this is a tentative start. Vegas likes to start strong, but there are always jitters when you can win it all. It's risky, but I like the 1st period under 1.5 goals tonight. I think everyone will want to settle into the game, get their puck touches and there are unlikely to be a lot of special teams opportunities. 

Long shot goalscorer: Mike Amadio +400