Team USA captain Auston Matthews rides longest goal drought since January 2019 and should score in tight defensive matchup versus Canada
The Four Nations Face Off has been a roaring success for the NHL and the sport of hockey. Saturday will feature the most highly-anticipated game of the tournament when Canada squares off against the United States.
For bettors, this matchup provides a chance to capitalize on some of our recent strong trends, like our 8-5-1 record on our last 14 Under picks and our 4-0 record on our last four Team Over picks.
All betting lines are from Bet365 and are subject to change. Hockey is a difficult sport to predict so please gamble responsibly.
Four Nations Face-Off - Team Canada vs Team USA Best Bets:
- Under 6.5 goals (-125)
- Canada Over 0.5 First Period goals (-180)
- Auston Matthews Over 0.5 points (-188)
This game is one players on both sides have waited for since they've joined the league like winger Brady Tkachuk saying the matchup this will be the biggest game of his life. It should make for a thrilling matchup with both sides giving it their all.
With that in mind, people may expect this to be a high-scoring game as both teams have totalled seven or more goals in their first round robin games but I expect this one to be a classic slug fest between the two biggest nations in the sport.
Canada and U.S. have always kept things close but expect the Canadians to play with confidence as they have a 14-4-1 all-time record in best-on-best competition versus the Americans, outscoring their southern neighbors 70 to 29 in the process.
These two countries have totalled under seven goals in four of their last five matchups with the last time they met with their best talent being the semifinals of the 2016 World Cup of Hockey, where Canada won 4-2 over the United States. Prior to that was the semifinals of the 2014 Olympic Winter Games, where Canada again edged out the Americans but in a narrow 1-0 victory.
We should see a similar result as the Americans allowed just one goal in their first game versus Finland and will bring their best when taking on their archrival. American netminder Connor Hellebuyck has been red hot entering the tournament with a 19-2-2 record, a 1.99 goals against average and a .924 save percentage over his last 23 starts.
Canada played solid defensively before taking their foot off the gas against Sweden on Wednesday with just three shots allowed in the first period and one goal allowed through the first 30 minutes of game time. Canadian netminder Jordan Binnington had a few miscues when it came to his performance but he made up for it when it counted with a stellar effort in overtime and making 23 saves to secure the win.
The 31-year-old Richmond Hill native has a 3-0-0 record and a 1.17 goals against average and a .947 save percentage in series clinching playoff games. He has also been decent when representing his country with a 6-2-0 record and a 2.81 goals against average at the 2023 IIHF World Championships.
It's almost impossible to pick a side with the best course of action being to take the spread on the team that gives up the first goal as it should be a narrow game. We broke down the rumors earlier this week that the NHL has a mystery national anthem singer planned for this one and should be one that favors the Canadian crowd.
If it is Celine Dion or another Canadian singer, it will likely give the crowd a jolt of energy that should help encourage the Canadians to have a similar start to this game as their matchup versus Sweden, where they scored within the first few minutes of the game. For Team Canada to score a single goal in the first at -180 is a must-bet.
If you are desperate for a third leg to make it a parlay for certain promotions, U.S. captain Auston Matthews is long overdue for a goal as he rides a seven-game drought, which is tied for his longest since January of 2019. He will be supremely motivated for this game and should see him attempt to lead his team to victory with a huge goal in a tight game.