Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final goes tonight after Vegas beat Florida 5-2 in the first matchup. Many times this spring, Florida has won games while being significantly outplayed by their opponent. Sergei Bobrovsky morphed into a brick wall and there was little that Toronto or Carolina could do about it. That was not the case on Saturday night. Vegas scored 5 goals on 4.79 expected goals, according to MoneyPuck. Florida scored 2 on 2.59. The eye test matched the result and Vegas drew first blood.
Matthew Tkachuk was held off the score sheet in the first battle, and has not been held pointless in two straight games yet this spring. He won his matchups in terms of puck possession, scoring chances and shots, but the depth of Vegas was too much for Florida to handle. With Tkachuk getting chances and consistently generating for the last six weeks, I don't expect him to go pointless this evening. Matthew Tkachuk over 3.5 shots at +100 is a great spot with value.
Vegas was able to score with lots of traffic and net front play. Marchessault and Smith scoring against the club who jettisoned them for nothing was the cherry on top of the Game 1 sundae. Vegas got contributions from their backend with a game winner from Zach Whitecloud and a stunning display of footwork from Shea Theodore. Using traffic at the net front has been successful for Vegas under Bruce Cassidy and there is no reason to think that will change. There is little value on Theodore and Pietrangelo at 2+ shots, but if you parlay them, it is worth a shot at +102.
Mark Stone registered 7 shots on goal in Game 1 and while I don't expect him to hit that number again, getting him over 2.5 at +105 is great value. He was a complete headache for Florida all over the ice and demonstrated how quickly he can turn a forecheck into a goal scoring opportunity.
Those are my value spots for Game 2. Let's see how Florida responds.