Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) battles with Dallas Stars defensemen Alex Petrovic (28) in front of goaltender Jake Oettinger (29) during the first period in game three of the Western Conference Final of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Rogers Place. Photo Credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images
LAS VEGAS -- Twelve of the 19 games played this past weekend stayed under the posted total, shifting the tide a bit, after 31 of the first 56 since the 4 Nations Face-Off went over.
Since the regular season resumed after the international round-robin tourney reignited everyone's attention last month, the over has been 38-35-2. Several playoff-hungry teams are finding an offensive groove while making a run at wild-card berths.
The highest-scoring teams since the break, in terms of goals-for-per-game, are: Columbus (5.25), Toronto (5.00), Dallas (4.80), Montreal (4.25), Philadelphia (4.25) and St. Louis (4.17).
If the playoffs started tonight, the first three would be in the postseason, but the last three are vying for a wild-card spot and have become teams to watch when looking for value plus prices and in specific matchups with vulnerable totals.
Conversely, the teams that have allowed the most goals per game since the end of the break are Pittsburgh (5.33), Chicago (4.40), Edmonton (4.40), Detroit (4.00), and Ottawa (4.00).
Based on how these teams have played since Feb. 22, here are some potential high-scoring games to keep an eye on this week if you plan on betting on totals:
March 5: Toronto at Vegas - Before their low-scoring, 2-0 victory over New Jersey on Sunday, the Golden Knights' scoring average ranked among the highest-scoring teams. With the Maple Leafs coming to town this week, in what both fanbases would say this is a potential Stanley Cup Final preview. We're talking Auston Matthews and Jack Eichel on the ice in a huge showdown. Four of the last six meetings have seen these two tally seven of more goals.
March 6: Montreal at Edmonton - It wouldn't matter if the Canadiens were making a push for the postseason or not, there's something about playing Connor McDavid and the Oilers in Edmonton that sparks teams offensively. It's because they know they have to bring it. Better to play up to speed than try to stop the world's greatest player, right? Seven of the last 10 meetings have landed over.
March 8: Dallas at Edmonton - After the Canadiens leave town, the Oilers welcome the Stars to town for the second meeting this season. And don't think for a moment Dallas' players haven't removed the sting from last summer's Western Conference Final loss to Edmonton. These two have typically played a heavy game, with the last three meetings staying under, but with how they've been playing lately, we could see fireworks.