Conn Smythe Picks

The Stanley Cup will be awarded by June 12th if we continue to play at this pace. The Florida Panthers eliminated the Carolina Hurricanes in four tightly contested games, with Matthew Tkachuk cementing himself as a playoff performer in the process. Vegas will try and match the Panthers by sweeping the Dallas Stars this evening. 

Barring a comeback that would begin without captain Jamie Benn, we can project a Florida - Vegas Final, one team will win their franchise's first Stanley Cup. Both teams have benefitted from key performances by players who should the favourites for the Conn Smythe Trophy. 

Historically speaking, the winner is selected from the Stanley Cup Champions. A few exceptions have been made for the losing team, when their goaltender has carried them to success. That can certainly be said about Sergei Bobrovsky who has earned the entirety of his mammoth contract in two short months. This is the best playoff performance from a goaltender since Jean-Sebastien Giguere in 2003. His performance against the Minnesota Wild that spring was something we may never see again. 

Bobrovsky has saved just shy of 20 goals above expected in the playoffs (MoneyPuck), and he didn't play their first few games against Boston. One can argue his numbers are inflated against Carolina because of the style they play, but Florida doesn't get to the Conference Final if he doesn't steal three wins where Toronto outplayed Florida by a fair margin. Matthew Tkachuk doesn't have the chance to score multiple game winning goals if Bobrovsky doesn't get the team to the Conference Final. His odds are +200 and if his run of play continues, he should be the landslide winner. 

There is no guarantee Bobrovsky remains on the case as he's been very up and down the past few seasons. Florida is unlikely to win without his stellar performance, and that makes it tough for Matthew Tkachuk who is +350. If he scores three game winners in the Cup Final, that's a different story, but the value is not high enough. 

Assuming Vegas joins Florida in the Cup Final, Mark Stone is tough to ignore. He's one point behind Jack Eichel for the team lead in scoring and given his heroic return from back surgery to captain Vegas to a first Stanley Cup, there's a lot of value in taking him at +650. Stone missed half the season with back surgery and returning to lead his team at both ends of the ice is a Disney movie on its own. His ability to raise his game in the most important moments, similar to Tkachuk, should make him the selection if Vegas hoists Lord Stanley. 

Florida will be the underdogs in the Cup Final, and getting Mark Stone at +650 is the bet value bet on the board. Bobrovsky will earn strong consideration in a losing effort if he continues his strong play, and is worth the bet if you believe Florida wins.