Stars' Jason Robertson presents breakout case with new superstar teammate, contract year motivation and clean bill of health for three straight seasons.
The NHL season is right around the corner, and once again, we're diving into regular season player props, just as we did last offseason. Our previous analysis delivered strong results, consistently identifying value where sportsbooks overlooked key context, such as long-term player trends and performance indicators beyond just the previous season’s stats.
One of our biggest wins came from fading the hype around Connor McDavid’s goal-scoring. Despite sportsbooks setting his goal total at an inflated 51.5, we correctly took the under, recognizing that he had only surpassed 44 goals once in his previous nine NHL seasons. That bet cashed comfortably plus we hit on a high percentage of our other picks, including props on Mitch Marner, Mark Scheifele, Wyatt Johnston, Rasmus Dahlin, Teuvo Teravainen and we backed Connor Hellebuyck not only to go over his win total but also to take home the Vezina Trophy.
Next up for our player prop picks is a hot name in terms of trade rumors with Dallas Stars winger Jason Robertson. Entering the final season of his current deal, the 26-year-old Arcadia native is looking to post another solid season when the sportsbooks expect similar numbers to the last few years. Robertson has posted exactly 79 or 80 points in three of the last four seasons which is oddly specific but it means sportsbooks have his over/under for points set at 80.5 (-115 on BetMGM) for the upcoming season.
The one year left out of that trend is when Robertson broke out in the 2022-23 season for 109 points through a full 82-game season. His health has been impressive with no games missed in three straight seasons meaning we can rely on him to stay in the lineup. Besides his great track record of health and contract year motivation, he also got a new addition to his line with Roope Hintz in superstar winger from the Carolina Hurricanes, Mikko Rantanen. The line went through spirts of success with some dry spills at times but with a full off-season of prep, this line should come back reenergized.
We recently covered why Rantanen shouldn't be expected to cover his over/under in goals as he will likely be working more as a playmaker for the motivated Robertson. Last season, the Stars top line featured Robertson and Hintz with youngster Wyatt Johnston. The 22-year-old had a solid 71-point campaign with 38 assists and helped Robertson score 35 goals last season.
With the addition of a 60+ assist player in Rantanen to top line line, Robertson should see an increase in his scoring next season plus should see his assist numbers take a jump as well as Rantanen is a regular 40-50 goal scorer. This all together makes the case for this over a total home run as Robertson may put up similar numbers to his 109-point breakout season.
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