Alex Debrincat is leading the NHL in scoring with 8 goals in 6 games. The Hockey News digs into the numbers to understand the what's fuelling NHL's hottest goalscorer.
When the Detroit Red Wings acquired Alex Debrincat in the off season, many wondered why. Detroit is not a contender and Debrincat was coming off a down season in Ottawa. Two weeks into the season, Debrincat has scored 30% of his goal total from last season. He's well on his way to a 35+ goal season and has a good chance to surpass his career-high of 41 goals in a season. With 8 goals in 6 games, Debrincat is one of the stories of the season thus far. Digging into the numbers behind his nuclear start, it would appear unsustainable while the starts of Dylan Larkin and Auston Matthews seem sustainable.
A deeper look at Debrincat's numbers uncovers a few obvious differences. While Detroit's top line of Debrincat, Larkin and Raymond have looked fantastic to start the year. Debrincat has been buoyed by an astronomical 5v5 shooting percentage of 37.5% and a sky high PDO of 114.2. Last season, no NHL player with 300+ minutes finished with a PDO at 5v5 higher than 106. You have to be lucky to be good and good to be lucky. Right now, Debrincat fits both of those categories.
Debrincat's shooting percentage in all situations this season is 42.1%. That is 26.6% higher than his career percentage of 15.5%. The highest shooting percentage in the NHL last season was Andrei Kuzmenko at 27%, a percentage he is expected to significantly regress from this season. Quite a few elite players finished the season with a shooting percentage around 21%, which is considered very high, even for elite players. If Debrincat regresses to 21%, he would still be on pace for a career-year.
A look at Matthews' number shows a more sustainable trend. Matthews is shooting below his career average at 5v5, with 11.1% thus far. At all strengths, he's shooting 20%, only 4.2% higher than his career average. Matthews leads the league in scoring chances created with 40 through 5 games (8 per game) while Debrincat has 21 in 6 games (3.5 per game), at all strengths. At 5v5, Debrincat is averaging 2.67 per game and Matthews is averaging 4 per game. Debrincat is converting 38% of his scoring chances while Matthews is converting 15% of his scoring chances at all strengths. Converting 38% of scoring chances at any strength is not sustainable; a more reasonable conversion rate for Debrincat's skill is about 13%, which mirrors Debrincat's career conversation rate.
High danger chances are more likely to be converted because they occur in areas that are more difficult to stop. Matthews averages 2.2 per game and Debrincat averages 1.17 per game. Both of these numbers are sustainable and in line with career averages, specifically Debrincat. This production directly mirrors Debrincat's high danger scoring chance generation in Chicago where he benefitted from playing with Patrick Kane. Debrincat didn't have that luxury per se in Ottawa, but has found his mojo alongside Dylan Larkin on the hometown line. It is reasonable to assume that Debrincat's scoring chance and play would mirror more closely to his time in Chicago than Ottawa because of deployment and play style similarities.
The underlying numbers around scoring chances and expected goals tell a more complete story. At 5v5 Debrincat has created 1.6 expected goals and Detroit controls 52.5% of the expected goal with Debrincat on the ice. Creating 1.6 ixG on 16 shots (including 7 high danger chances) does not amount to 6 goals. That is not an output in line with the inputs and is something that will regress. While the Red Wings are controlling play with Debrincat on the ice, the actual goal totals do not align with the level of chances he's creating.
The same cannot be said for Dylan Larkin and Auston Matthews. Larkin's shooting percentage at 5v5 is well below his career shooting percentage. He's scored one goal compared to his ixG of 1.03, meaning he is scoring in line with expectations. Matthews has tallied two goals at 5v5 while creating 2.63 ixG. Both players are scoring in line with their relative metrics, meaning that Debrincat's production (assists) on Larkin's goals is sustainable, while his goal scoring is not.
Debrincat has always scored above expectation, but not to this degree. Looking at his final three seasons in Chicago, Debrincat scored 41 goals on 37.28 ixG at 5v5. If we extrapolate the number of scoring chances he's projected to accrue this season and match it to his output in Chicago, Debrincat is projected to score 17 goals on 14.08 ixG at 5v5. In all situations, Debrincat is projected for 42 goals on 36.86 ixG. That total is quite close to his 2021-22 season where he tallied 41 goals on 32.31 ixG in all situations. It is not unreasonable to believe Debrincat will score 40 goals this season.
Debrincat, Larkin and Raymond are all fleet afoot and it shows. Each of them is producing rush attempts which are more likely to result in goals. However, Debrincat's astronomical shooting percentage on the power play and at 5v5 is bound to regress. Even in a career year where he matched Kuzmenko's shooting percentage of 27% in all situations, he wouldn't be able to maintain his current pace. In the unlikely event that he matches Kuzmenko's shooting percentage from last season, he would find himself in the 60-goal conversation reserved for the NHL's truly elite goal scorers.
Debrincat's start in Detroit could not have been scripted any better. From the goal scoring to the chemistry with a fellow Michigan boy, everything is coming up Debrincat in the early going. Don't expect that to last all season, but enjoy it while it does because even if Debrincat regressed to a shooting percentage of 20%, he is likely to hit 50 goals for the first time in his career. Not a bad way to start a brand new contract for your hometown team.