Sabres forward Tage Thompson has scored 38 or more goals in three of the last four seasons and is set to shoot more than ever with weaker linemates. 

The NHL season is fast approaching, and we're once again turning our attention to regular season player props, just like we did last offseason. We had great success uncovering value plays, often capitalizing on sportsbooks that overlooked key context and player history beyond just last season’s stats. 

We took advantage of the sportsbooks not knowing anything about Connor McDavid and that he's not a goal scorer and easily hit the under for his goal total last season, which was at a shocking 51.5 when he scored more than 44 goals just once in his nine prior NHL seasons. We also hit on nearly all of our other player prop picks like Mitch Marner, Mark Scheifele, Wyatt Johnston, Rasmus Dahlin, Teuvo Teravainen and Connor Hellebuyck to his over in wins plus take home the Vezina trophy.

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At the bottom of the Atlantic, we find an undervalued player on a non-playoff team in Tage Thompson of the Buffalo Sabres. I’m willing to bet most hockey fans aren’t aware that the 27-year-old center is coming off a 44-goal season, marking his third time in the last four years scoring 38 or more goals. Despite his impressive consistency, his scoring surge has flown under the radar, largely because the Sabres' struggles have kept Thompson’s goal-scoring talent out of the media spotlight. 

His over/under for goals this upcoming season is set at a surprising 37.5 goals (-115 on BetMGM). He lost one of his better linemates in JJ Peterka after he was dealt to the Utah Mammoth but this means that he will need to take a bigger role when it comes to the offense. His two new linemates are both 21 years old and under with Zach Benson and Jiri Kulich which means Thompson will likely have to guide the offense and look to shot more rather than working in plays with Peterka. 

Scoring goals won't be an issue for the Sabres as they quietly finished with a top ten offense last season. They have underrated depth in their forward group and could lead to their power play taking a bigger step this season. Thompson was just behind Alex Tuch in forward minutes and this should change this season as Thompson remains slated for top line minutes while Tuch will work into the second unit. 

With his extra minutes, Thompson will hopefully get to see more time with different players across the Sabres lineup that could prove to be successful like Josh Norris, Josh Doan, Ryan McLeod and Jack Quinn. Their young forward group should produce one more star talent that Thompson can benefit playing with. Either way, we do know that he will continue being the focal point of the Sabres scoring attack and with Peterka's departure that should only mean more shooting from Thompson. 

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