Using cutting-edge AI analysis, we dive deep into the upcoming NHL season to uncover the top 5 players projected to breakout. Get ahead of the game with our exclusive player projections and stay tuned to see if the AI's predictions hold true on the ice.
Every season, there are players who are projected to breakout of their scoring patterns and drastically increase their production. Similar to regression, some are related to a change in playing situation, while others are related to deflated shooting percentage or PDO factor. When predicting breakout candidates, Kevin looks at the performance of the previous season, the factors that impact scoring and accounts for manual inputs such as a coaching change or situational change (positive/negative). Those will be accounted for once the first game is played. Once all factors were considered, the player's performance and volatility was measured to understand how consistently they perform to expectations. Players who performed above expectation but lacked the production to match are prime candidates for a breakout. Others had such a drastic chance in situation that a breakout was naturally considered.
Evan Bouchard - Edmonton Oilers
If there is a lock for a breakout this season, it is Evan Bouchard. After back-to-back seasons with point totals in the low-40s, Bouchard is primed to produce more than 60 points this season. His 1.5 points-per-game performance in the playoffs is a big boost to his case, as 12 games of sample is enough for Kevin to predict nearly a 30-point jump in production.
Bouchard is predicted to produce between 68-75 points in 2023-24. He is blossomed into Edmonton's primary power play quarterback that is loaded with 100+ point players. Any one who is placed in a position to benefit and increase the lethalness of the league's top special teams unit is going to see an increase in projected production. Bouchard routinely made great reads and set ups towards the end of last season with McDavid and Draisaitl, and there is no reason to believe that changes this year. He is unlikely to score many goals at even strength or on the power play, but is projected to register nearly 60 assists. With his development and increased offensive role, Bouchard could see a jump into the high-end offensive defencemen category, just below the likes of Makar, Fox and Hamilton.
Alex Newhook - Montreal Canadiens
After back-to-back 30 points seasons, Alex Newhook finds himself on a new team with a new role. No longer is Newhook the bottom-six player on the juggernaut Avalanche, but a top-6 player on a young and rebuilding Montreal team. He averaged just under 14 minutes over the last two seasons with the Avalanche with a sustainable shooting percentage and positive possession metrics. In two pre-season games thus far, Newhook has averaged nearly 19 minutes. He's more likely to play between 16 and 17 minutes in the regular season, which is a 20% increase in ice-time. He has spent time with Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki on the top line and may find himself bouncing around the middle-six depending on the need for a third-line centre.
Regardless, Newhook will see power play time and likely have the opportunity to play with Suzuki and Dach when other players on Montreal are moved around. Dach, Monahan and Newhook are capable of playing the wing and centre, which will allow the Canadiens to find the best chemistry and matchups on any given night. St. Louis is very clearly in a development mindset and it wouldn't be surprising to see Newhook get a longer look on Suzuki and Dach's respective wings. Newhook's increase in role and Montreal's dedicated to playing younger players bodes well for a jump in production. He's a volatile performance player, giving him a large projection range between 40-58 points.
Mason McTavish - Anaheim Ducks
As it stands, Mason McTavish is slated to slot in as Anaheim's second-line centre. Trevor Zegras, one of the NHL's premier young players finally signed his extension on Monday, but may be a candidate for the wing with McTavish and Leo Carlsson in the mix. McTavish's production was primed for a breakout prior to a potential jump to the lop line, and has only increased with the caveat. Playing between Troy Terry and Adam Henrique or Trevor Zegras (if he plays the wing), McTavish will likely see a jump from his 15 minutes of ice-time per game last season. After a 43-point campaign, McTavish is slated to slide into a role with more offensively gifted players and benefit from top power play minutes consistently.
With an expected 10-15% jump in ice-time, McTavish is likely to be tested against the league's top match-up pairs. He's talented enough to succeed, however there may be an adjustment period. If his shot production increases, which is expected, McTavish is predicted to score between 26-34 goals in 2023-24. Should Zegras return to the lineup and McTavish remains at 15 minutes per-game, his production is projected to land between 55-62 points. However, an increased role has McTavish projected to produce in the neighbourhood of 70 points, similar to the jump Roope Hintz made in 2020-21.
Seth Jarvis - Carolina Hurricanes
A good young player slated for top minutes on one of the league's top teams? That'll put him on a breakout list. Seth Jarvis has put up 79 points in his fist 150 NHL games, but has shown flashes of a player capable of 80+ points on a yearly basis. In 15 playoff games last season, Jarvis recorded 10 points against tough matchups. Last season, his production decreased nearly 20% in part due to a depressed shooting percentage. Last season he individually created nearly 22 goals at even strength, 9 more than he scored. This is a strong indication that he generates plenty of high-end scoring chances and the goals will come. At all strengths, Jarvis was expected to score 28 goals, double his actual production of 14.
Looking under the hood is really where things come together. Seth Jarvis created more individual expected goals per-60 than Roope Hintz, Nathan Mackinnon, and more individual shots on goal per-60 than Tim Stützle and Kyle Connor. All of those players scored more than 20 goals at even strength last season, indicating that Jarvis is on the cusp of an offensive explosion. The difference is Jarvis shot 8.6% at even strength whereas the other four players shot between 11.5-15.8%. Jarvis' role likely won't increase drastically, but his underlying numbers overwhelmingly predict a drastic increase in production because of what he produces individually and Carolina's play style.
Alexis Lafrenière - New York Rangers
Lafrenière is one of two high-end forwards on the New York Rangers expected to see a jump in production this year. Under new coach Peter Laviolette, Lafrenière is expected to see an increased role at even-strength and on special teams, contributing to his breakout projection. He's bounced around the lineup in his first two seasons with the Rangers and struggled to create scoring opportunities. However, he's expected to get a healthy run in the top-6 with the likes of Zibanejad and Panarin. Given Panarin's proven ability to create scoring opportunities for his line mates, Lafrenière stands to benefit from a higher volume of scoring chances on a more consistent basis.
Lafrenière's shooting percentage cratered last season and while he may normalize around 13.5%, he is unlikely to fall below 11%. His shot volume increased by 20% last season and should see another significant jump to nearly 200 shots on goal this season with increased opportunities. The model projects him to score more than 20 goals for the first time in his career and in the range of 49-61 points. It isn't now or never for Lafrenière, but the Rangers have a track record of squandering elite offensive talent and need to do their best to help Lafrenière reach his potential.
Honourable Mentions
Brett Howden, Rasmus Sandin, Kirby Dach, Ross Colton