At the stroke of twelve (wins), the spell will be broken. The famous words of Cinderella's fairy godmother. It would seem that the glass slipper is on the stairs, the footman is turning back into a mouse and the Panthers have a tint of pumpkin orange to them after their trip to Vegas. Tonight's pivotal game is as close to do or die as it gets. Vegas has really come on strong in the first two games and Florida still looks like they are trying to regain their intensity after 10 days off.
Sasha Barkov has been all around the net for Florida in the series and hasn't been rewarded yet despite 10 scoring chances. At +260, there is value on him to score tonight. He's second on Florida in high danger chances created in all situations behind Matthew Tkachuk, but if you don't like him to score, I'd consider laying money on an assist at -115. He's creating chances and if Florida has any hope, he will be on the scoresheet.
This is a heavy shot prop game as there are a few spots I really like. Rielly Smith has gone over his line of 1.5 shots in 71% of his playoff games this year. He's projected to clear that tonight, too. It is a similar story for William Karlsson who's cleared his line of 1.5 shots in 82% of his games. He's projected to be closer to 3 shots tonight, and there is value on his line at anything better than -150.
Anton Lundell is going to see a better matchup at home and has cleared his shot line in 80% of his playoff games. He's a good secondary scoring threat that will need to generate opportunities at even strength to get Florida back in the series. He hasn't struggled with the physical game in this series and 2 shots at home is very doable.
Brandon Montour has recorded 4 or more shots in 50% of his playoff games this year and while the value isn't there at 3.5, I like him for 3+ shots as part of a parlay with Sam Bennett. Both to record 3+ shots is good value and has hit in 69% of playoff games. Nice!
The final prop I'm taking is Zach Whitecloud over 1.5 blocked shots. He's been a machine for Vegas in the playoffs and will see a tougher matchup on the road with Maurice trying to get his top line away from Theodore and Pietrangelo. A heavy dose of Tkachuk and Barkov could mean a lot of defensive zone time and opportunities to block shots.
It's a big one for Florida! Let's see if they can summon a little more fairy dust.